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A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors

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  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • Ulrich Horst
  • Ronnie Sircar

Abstract

We study the effect of investor inertia on stock price fluctuations with a market microstructure model comprising many small investors who are inactive most of the time. It turns out that semi-Markov processes are tailor made for modelling inert investors. With a suitable scaling, we show that when the price is driven by the market imbalance, the log price process is approximated by a process with long range dependence and non-Gaussian returns distributions, driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Consequently, investor inertia may lead to arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated market participants. The mathematical contributions are a functional central limit theorem for stationary semi-Markov processes, and approximation results for stochastic integrals of continuous semimartingales with respect to fractional Brownian motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar & Ulrich Horst & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors," Papers math/0703831, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0703831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2004. "Estimating The Fractal Dimension Of The S&P 500 Index Using Wavelet Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(05), pages 615-643.
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    9. Klüppelberg, Claudia & Kühn, Christoph, 2004. "Fractional Brownian motion as a weak limit of Poisson shot noise processes--with applications to finance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 333-351, October.
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    13. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Arbitrage In Fractal Modulated Black–Scholes Models When The Volatility Is Stochastic," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 283-300.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2004. "Estimating The Fractal Dimension Of The S&P 500 Index Using Wavelet Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(05), pages 615-643.
    2. Rama Cont & Adrien De Larrard, 2012. "Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations," Papers 1202.6412, arXiv.org.
    3. Mine Caglar, 2011. "Stock Price Processes with Infinite Source Poisson Agents," Papers 1106.6300, arXiv.org.
    4. Christian Bender & Tommi Sottinen & Esko Valkeila, 2010. "Fractional processes as models in stochastic finance," Papers 1004.3106, arXiv.org.
    5. Rama Cont & Adrien de Larrard, 2011. "Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations," Working Papers hal-00672274, HAL.
    6. Erhan Bayraktar & Ulrich Horst & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "Queueing Theoretic Approaches to Financial Price Fluctuations," Papers math/0703832, arXiv.org.
    7. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Arbitrage In Fractal Modulated Black–Scholes Models When The Volatility Is Stochastic," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 283-300.

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