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A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors

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  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • Ulrich Horst
  • Ronnie Sircar

Abstract

We study the effect of investor inertia on stock price fluctuations with a market microstructure model comprising many small investors who are inactive most of the time. It turns out that semi-Markov processes are tailor made for modelling inert investors. With a suitable scaling, we show that when the price is driven by the market imbalance, the log price process is approximated by a process with long range dependence and non-Gaussian returns distributions, driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Consequently, investor inertia may lead to arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated market participants. The mathematical contributions are a functional central limit theorem for stationary semi-Markov processes, and approximation results for stochastic integrals of continuous semimartingales with respect to fractional Brownian motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar & Ulrich Horst & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors," Papers math/0703831, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0703831
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2004. "Estimating The Fractal Dimension Of The S&P 500 Index Using Wavelet Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(05), pages 615-643.
    2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    3. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Ulrich Horst, 2005. "Financial price fluctuations in a stock market model with many interacting agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(4), pages 917-932, June.
    5. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    6. Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Metrick, Andrew, 2002. "How does the Internet affect trading? Evidence from investor behavior in 401(k) plans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 397-421, June.
    7. Thomas Lux & Michele Marchesi, 2000. "Volatility Clustering In Financial Markets: A Microsimulation Of Interacting Agents," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 675-702.
    8. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    9. Klüppelberg, Claudia & Kühn, Christoph, 2004. "Fractional Brownian motion as a weak limit of Poisson shot noise processes--with applications to finance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 333-351, October.
    10. Haliassos, Michael & Bertaut, Carol C, 1995. "Why Do So Few Hold Stocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1110-1129, September.
    11. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    12. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
    13. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Arbitrage In Fractal Modulated Black–Scholes Models When The Volatility Is Stochastic," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 283-300.
    14. Łukasz Kruk, 2003. "Functional Limit Theorems for a Simple Auction," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 716-751, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mine Caglar, 2011. "Stock Price Processes with Infinite Source Poisson Agents," Papers 1106.6300, arXiv.org.
    2. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2004. "Estimating The Fractal Dimension Of The S&P 500 Index Using Wavelet Analysis," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(05), pages 615-643.
    3. Rama Cont & Adrien De Larrard, 2012. "Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations," Papers 1202.6412, arXiv.org.
    4. Christian Bender & Tommi Sottinen & Esko Valkeila, 2010. "Fractional processes as models in stochastic finance," Papers 1004.3106, arXiv.org.
    5. Rama Cont & Adrien de Larrard, 2011. "Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations," Working Papers hal-00672274, HAL.
    6. Erhan Bayraktar & Ulrich Horst & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "Queueing Theoretic Approaches to Financial Price Fluctuations," Papers math/0703832, arXiv.org.
    7. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Arbitrage In Fractal Modulated Black–Scholes Models When The Volatility Is Stochastic," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 283-300.

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