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Evolutionary stable stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Evstigneev

  • Thorsten Hens

  • Klaus Schenk-Hoppé

Abstract

This paper shows that a stock market is evolutionary stable if and only if stocks are evaluated by expected relative dividends. Any other market can be invaded in the sense that there is a portfolio rule that, when introduced on the market with arbitrarily small initial wealth, increases its market share at the incumbent’s expense. This mutant portfolio rule changes the asset valuation in the course of time. The stochastic wealth dynamics in our evolutionary stock market model is formulated as a random dynamical system. Applying this theory, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the evolutionary stability of portfolio rules when relative dividend payoffs follow a stationary Markov process. These local stability conditions lead to a unique evolutionary stable portfolio rule according to which assets are evaluated by expected relative dividends (with respect to the objective probabilities). Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, 2006. "Evolutionary stable stock markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(2), pages 449-468, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:27:y:2006:i:2:p:449-468
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-005-0607-8
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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