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On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule – A Darwinian Approach

  • Terje Lensberg

    (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppe

    (University of Leeds, Business School and School of Mathematics)

This paper complements theoretical studies on the Kelly rule in evolutionary finance by studying a Darwinian model of selection and reproduction in which the diversity of investment strategies is maintained through genetic programming. We find that investment strategies which optimize long-term performance can emerge in markets populated by unsophisticated investors. Regardless whether the market is complete or incomplete and whether states are i.i.d. or Markov, the Kelly rule is obtained as the asymptotic outcome. With pricedependent rather than just state-dependent investment strategies, the market portfolio plays an important role as a protection against severe losses in volatile markets.

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File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=957731
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Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 06-38.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0638
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch

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  1. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
  2. Peter Bossaerts & Charles Plott & William R. Zame, 2005. "Prices and Portfolio Choices in Financial Markets: Theory and Experiments," UCLA Economics Working Papers 840, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Lensberg, Terje, 1999. "Investment behavior under Knightian uncertainty - An evolutionary approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1587-1604, September.
  4. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Market Selection of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," IEW - Working Papers 083, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  7. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
  8. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, 07.
  9. Rabah Amir & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies," IEW - Working Papers 091, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  10. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-68, October.
  11. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June.
  12. Allen, Franklin & Karjalainen, Risto, 1999. "Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 245-271, February.
  13. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
  14. Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Evolutionary Stable Stock Markets," IEW - Working Papers 170, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  15. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stability of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," Discussion Papers 03-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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