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On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule – A Darwinian Approach

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This paper complements theoretical studies on the Kelly rule in evolutionary finance by studying a Darwinian model of selection and reproduction in which the diversity of investment strategies is maintained through genetic programming. We find that investment strategies which optimize long-term performance can emerge in markets populated by unsophisticated investors. Regardless whether the market is complete or incomplete and whether states are i.i.d. or Markov, the Kelly rule is obtained as the asymptotic outcome. With price-dependent rather than just state-dependent investment strategies, the market portfolio plays an important role as a protection against severe losses in volatile markets.

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  • Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner, 2006. "On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule – A Darwinian Approach," Discussion Papers 2006/23, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2006_023
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/163854
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    1. Amir, Rabah & Evstigneev, Igor V. & Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Market selection and survival of investment strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 105-122, February.
    2. Peter Bossaerts & Charles Plott & William R. Zame, 2005. "Prices and Portfolio Choices in Financial Markets: Theory and Experiments," UCLA Economics Working Papers 840, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    5. Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, 2006. "Evolutionary stable stock markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(2), pages 449-468, January.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
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    8. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
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    10. Lensberg, Terje, 1999. "Investment behavior under Knightian uncertainty - An evolutionary approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1587-1604, September.
    11. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    12. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
    13. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339.
    14. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2008. "Evolutionary Finance," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-14, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Igor V. EVSTIGNEEVY & Thorsten HENS & Klaus Reiner SCHENK-HOPPE, "undated". "An evolutionary financial market model with a risk-free asset," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-36, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner & Ladley, Dan, 2015. "Costs and benefits of financial regulation: Short-selling bans and transaction taxes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 103-118.
    4. Dan Ladley & Seth Bullock, 2008. "The Strategic Exploitation of Limited Information and Opportunity in Networked Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(3), pages 295-315, October.
    5. repec:kap:jbioec:v:20:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10818-017-9254-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2012. "Fund managers - Why the best might be the worst: On the evolutionary vigor of risk-seeking behavior," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-20, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner & Ladley, Dan, 2012. "Costs and Benefits of Speculation," Discussion Papers 2012/12, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Witte, Björn-Christopher, 2011. "Fund managers - why the best might be the worst: On the evolutionary vigor of risk-seeking behavior," BERG Working Paper Series 81, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evolutionary finance; portfolio choice; asset pricing; genetic programming;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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