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Evolutionary Portfolio Selection with Liquidity Shocks

Insurance companies invest their wealth in financial markets. The wealth evolution strongly depends on the success of their investment strategies, but also on liquidity shocks which occur during unfavourable years, when indemnities to be paid to the clients exceed collected premia. An investment strategy that does not take liquidity shocks into account, exposes insurance companies to the risk of bankruptcy, when liquidity shocks and low investment payoffs jointly appear. Therefore, regulatory au- thorities impose solvency restrictions to ensure that insurance companies are able to face their obligations with high probability. This paper analyses the behaviour of in- surance companies in an evolutionary framework. We show that an insurance company that merely satisfies regulatory constraints will eventually vanish from the market. We give a more restrictive no bankruptcy condition for the investment strategies and we characterize trading strategies that are evolutionary stable, i.e. able to drive out any mutation.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 185.

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  1. Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stable Stock Markets," Discussion Papers 03-39, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  2. Larry Blume & David Easley, 2001. "If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1319, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Markets Do Not Select For a Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Discussion Papers 02-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2004. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Agents," Research Paper Series 134, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  7. Canner, Niko & Mankiw, N Gregory & Weil, David N, 1997. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 181-91, March.
  8. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, March.
  9. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2003. "Evolutionary Stability of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," Discussion Papers 03-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis & Pan, Jun, 2001. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9fm6t5nb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  11. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Prudent person rules or quantitative restrictions? The regulation of long-term institutional investors' portfolios," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 157-191, July.
  12. Volker Bohm & Carl Chiarella, 2000. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, and the Dynamics of Random Asset Prices," Research Paper Series 46, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  13. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  14. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  15. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  17. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  18. Paul Embrechts, 1996. "Actuarial versus Financial Pricing of Insurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-17, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  19. Leippold, Markus & Trojani, Fabio & Vanini, Paolo, 2006. "Equilibrium impact of value-at-risk regulation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1277-1313, August.
  20. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2004. "Learning to predict rationally when beliefs are heterogeneous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2075-2104, September.
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