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Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Rabah Amir
  • Igor V. Evstigneev
  • Thorsten Hens
  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�

Abstract

The paper analyzes the process of market selection of investment strategies in an incomplete asset market. The payoffs of the as-sets depend on random factors described in terms of a discrete-time Markov process. Market participants make dynamic investment de-cisions based on their observations and time. We show that a trader distributing wealth across available assets according to the relative expected returns eventually accumulates the entire market wealth. The result obtains under the assumption that the trader's strategy is asymptotically distinct from the CAPM strategy (prescribing in-vestment in the market portfolio). This assumption turns out to be essentially necessary for the conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Amir & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies," IEW - Working Papers 091, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:091
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 2001. "Evolutionary dynamics in financial markets with many trader types," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211-211.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    5. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
    6. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
    7. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk‐Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339, October.
    8. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    10. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Schenk-Hopp�, "undated". "Evolution of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," IEW - Working Papers 074, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    evolutionary finance; portfolio theory; investment strategies; CAPM; market selection; incomplete markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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