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Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies

  • Rabah Amir
  • Igor V. Evstigneev
  • Thorsten Hens
  • Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé

The paper analyzes the process of market selection of investment strategies in an incomplete asset market. The payoffs of the as-sets depend on random factors described in terms of a discrete-time Markov process. Market participants make dynamic investment de-cisions based on their observations and time. We show that a trader distributing wealth across available assets according to the relative expected returns eventually accumulates the entire market wealth. The result obtains under the assumption that the trader's strategy is asymptotically distinct from the CAPM strategy (prescribing in-vestment in the market portfolio). This assumption turns out to be essentially necessary for the conclusion.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich in its series IEW - Working Papers with number 091.

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Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:091
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  1. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211.
  2. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  3. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  4. W.A. Brock, C.H. Hommes and F.O.O. Wagener, 2001. "Evolutionary dynamics in financial markets with many trader types," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 119, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339.
  6. Thorsten Hens & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, . "Evolution of Portfolio Rules in Incomplete Markets," IEW - Working Papers 074, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  7. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, 07.
  8. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  9. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
  10. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
  11. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
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