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Globally evolutionarily stable portfolio rules

  • Evstigneev, Igor V.
  • Hens, Thorsten
  • Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner

The paper examines a dynamic model of a financial market with endogenous asset prices determined by short-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an investor to "survive," i.e., to accumulate in the long run a positive share of market wealth, regardless of the initial state of the market. It is shown that there is a unique portfolio rule with this property--an analogue of the famous Kelly rule of "betting your beliefs." A game theoretic interpretation of this result is given.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 140 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 197-228

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:140:y:2008:i:1:p:197-228
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  1. Jean-Jacques Laffont, 1989. "The Economics of Uncertainty and Information," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121360, June.
  2. Igor Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, 2006. "Evolutionary stable stock markets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 449-468, January.
  3. Amir, Rabah & Evstigneev, Igor V. & Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Market selection and survival of investment strategies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 105-122, February.
  4. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211.
  5. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  6. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Market Selection of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," IEW - Working Papers 083, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  7. J. Doyne Farmer & Andrew W. Lo, 1999. "Frontiers of Finance: Evolution and Efficient Markets," Working Papers 99-06-039, Santa Fe Institute.
  8. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  9. Alos-Ferrer, Carlos & Ania, Ana B., 2005. "The asset market game," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 67-90, February.
  10. repec:att:wimass:9725 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
  12. Schlicht, Ekkehart, . "Isolation and Aggregation in Economics," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 3, October.
  13. Shapley, Lloyd S & Shubik, Martin, 1977. "Trade Using One Commodity as a Means of Payment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 937-68, October.
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