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The Equity Premium and the One Percent

Author

Listed:
  • Alexis Akira Toda
  • Kieran James Walsh
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We show that in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneity in risk aversion or belief, shifting wealth from an agent who holds comparatively fewer stocks to one who holds more reduces the equity premium. From an empirical view, the rich hold more stocks, so inequality should predict excess stock market returns. Consistent with our theory, we find that when the U.S. top (, 1%) income share rises, subsequent 1-year excess market returns significantly decline. This negative relation is robust to controlling for classic return predictors, predicting out-of-sample, and instrumenting inequality with estate tax rate changes. It also holds in international markets.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Akira Toda & Kieran James Walsh & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "The Equity Premium and the One Percent," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3583-3623.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:33:y:2020:i:8:p:3583-3623.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhz121
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    Cited by:

    1. Koimisis, Georgios & Giannikos, Christos I., 2024. "Inequality, premium and the timing of resolution of uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Christos I. Giannikos & Georgios Koimisis, 2021. "Equity Premium with Habits, Wealth Inequality and Background Risk," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Ji Hyung Lee & Yuya Sasaki & Alexis Akira Toda & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Capital and Labor Income Pareto Exponents in the United States, 1916-2019," Papers 2206.04257, arXiv.org.
    4. Arrigoni, Simone, 2024. "Who gets the flow? Financial globalisation and wealth inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Toda, Alexis Akira & Walsh, Kieran James, 2024. "Recent advances on uniqueness of competitive equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Rafal Raciborski, 2022. "Income Inequality and Stock Market Returns," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 286-307, January.
    7. Lugo, Stefano, 2025. "Inequality and capital structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Matthieu Gomez, 2017. "Asset Prices and Wealth Inequality," 2017 Meeting Papers 1155, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Won, Dong Chul, 2023. "A new approach to the uniqueness of equilibrium with CRRA preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2249-2282, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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