IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2507.17599.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A general randomized test for Alpha

Author

Listed:
  • Daniele Massacci
  • Lucio Sarno
  • Lorenzo Trapani
  • Pierluigi Vallarino

Abstract

We propose a methodology to construct tests for the null hypothesis that the pricing errors of a panel of asset returns are jointly equal to zero in a linear factor asset pricing model -- that is, the null of "zero alpha". We consider, as a leading example, a model with observable, tradable factors, but we also develop extensions to accommodate for non-tradable and latent factors. The test is based on equation-by-equation estimation, using a randomized version of the estimated alphas, which only requires rates of convergence. The distinct features of the proposed methodology are that it does not require the estimation of any covariance matrix, and that it allows for both N and T to pass to infinity, with the former possibly faster than the latter. Further, unlike extant approaches, the procedure can accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity, non-Gaussianity, and even strong cross-sectional dependence in the error terms. We also propose a de-randomized decision rule to choose in favor or against the correct specification of a linear factor pricing model. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has satisfactory properties and it compares favorably to several existing tests. The usefulness of the testing procedure is illustrated through an application of linear factor pricing models to price the constituents of the S&P 500.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Massacci & Lucio Sarno & Lorenzo Trapani & Pierluigi Vallarino, 2025. "A general randomized test for Alpha," Papers 2507.17599, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.17599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.17599
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Liu, Jun & Schwarz, Krista, 2020. "Using Stocks or Portfolios in Tests of Factor Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(3), pages 709-750, May.
    3. Mikhail Chernov & Bryan T. Kelly & Semyon Malamud & Johannes Schwab, 2025. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio in High Dimensions," NBER Working Papers 33565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Patrick Gagliardini & Elisa Ossola & Olivier Scaillet, 2016. "Time‐Varying Risk Premium in Large Cross‐Sectional Equity Data Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 985-1046, May.
    5. Lorenzo Trapani, 2018. "A Randomized Sequential Procedure to Determine the Number of Factors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1341-1349, July.
    6. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2022. "Factor Models, Machine Learning, and Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 337-368, November.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    8. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Martina Mincheva, 2013. "Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(4), pages 603-680, September.
    9. A. Chudik & G. Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2018. "A One Covariate at a Time, Multiple Testing Approach to Variable Selection in High‐Dimensional Linear Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1479-1512, July.
    10. M Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2024. "Testing for Alpha in Linear Factor Pricing Models with a Large Number of Securities," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 407-460.
    11. Feng, Long & Lan, Wei & Liu, Binghui & Ma, Yanyuan, 2022. "High-dimensional test for alpha in linear factor pricing models with sparse alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 152-175.
    12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    13. Stefano Giglio & Yuan Liao & Dacheng Xiu, 2021. "Thousands of Alpha Tests," NBER Chapters, in: Big Data: Long-Term Implications for Financial Markets and Firms, pages 3456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Horváth, Lajos & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2019. "Testing for randomness in a random coefficient autoregression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 338-352.
    15. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "The effect of data transformation on common cycle, cointegration, and unit root tests: Monte Carlo results and a simple test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 195-229, May.
    16. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
    19. Natalia Bailey & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Measurement of factor strength: Theory and practice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 587-613, August.
    20. Sermin Gungor & Richard Luger, 2016. "Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning With a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 161-175, April.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-795, June.
    23. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    24. He, Yong & Kong, Xinbing & Trapani, Lorenzo & Yu, Long, 2023. "One-way or two-way factor model for matrix sequences?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1981-2004.
    25. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    26. Soohun Kim & Robert A Korajczyk & Andreas Neuhierl & Wei JiangEditor, 2021. "Arbitrage Portfolios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2813-2856.
    27. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
    28. Yaowu Liu & Jun Xie, 2020. "Cauchy Combination Test: A Powerful Test With Analytic p-Value Calculation Under Arbitrary Dependency Structures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(529), pages 393-402, January.
    29. Valentina Raponi & Cesare Robotti & Paolo Zaffaroni & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Testing Beta-Pricing Models Using Large Cross-Sections," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2796-2842.
    30. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    31. Matteo Barigozzi & Lorenzo Trapani, 2022. "Testing for Common Trends in Nonstationary Large Datasets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1107-1122, June.
    32. Niels J. Gormsen & Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2023. "Financial Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 69-89, November.
    33. Shujie Ma & Wei Lan & Liangjun Su & Chih-Ling Tsai, 2020. "Testing Alphas in Conditional Time-Varying Factor Models With High-Dimensional Assets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 214-227, January.
    34. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    35. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    36. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    37. Jianqing Fan & Yuan Liao & Jiawei Yao, 2015. "Power Enhancement in High‐Dimensional Cross‐Sectional Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(4), pages 1497-1541, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2020. "Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 219-282, Elsevier.
    2. Gagliardini, Patrick & Ossola, Elisa & Scaillet, Olivier, 2019. "A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 503-521.
    3. M Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2024. "Testing for Alpha in Linear Factor Pricing Models with a Large Number of Securities," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 407-460.
    4. Yu, Xiufan & Yao, Jiawei & Xue, Lingzhou, 2024. "Power enhancement for testing multi-factor asset pricing models via Fisher’s method," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    5. Feng, Long & Lan, Wei & Liu, Binghui & Ma, Yanyuan, 2022. "High-dimensional test for alpha in linear factor pricing models with sparse alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 152-175.
    6. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    7. Barigozzi, Matteo & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2020. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 5149-5187.
    8. Natalia Bailey & George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "Measurement of factor strength: Theory and practice," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 587-613, August.
    9. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2017. "Inference on Risk Premia in the Presence of Omitted Factors," NBER Working Papers 23527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Fan, Jianqing & Ke, Yuan & Liao, Yuan, 2021. "Augmented factor models with applications to validating market risk factors and forecasting bond risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 269-294.
    11. Ge, Shuyi & Li, Shaoran & Linton, Oliver, 2023. "News-implied linkages and local dependency in the equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 779-815.
    12. Lin William Cong & Guanhao Feng & Jingyu He & Xin He, 2022. "Growing the Efficient Frontier on Panel Trees," NBER Working Papers 30805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Cong, Lin William & Feng, Guanhao & He, Jingyu & He, Xin, 2025. "Growing the efficient frontier on panel trees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Bodnar, Taras & Reiß, Markus, 2016. "Exact and asymptotic tests on a factor model in low and large dimensions with applications," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 125-151.
    15. Kim, Soohun & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2018. "Ex-post risk premia estimation and asset pricing tests using large cross sections: The regression-calibration approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 159-188.
    16. Sun, Yucheng & Xu, Wen & Zhang, Chuanhai, 2023. "Identifying latent factors based on high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 251-270.
    17. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2017. "Asset Pricing and Excess Returns over the Market Return," Working Papers 2017-12, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    18. Minshuo Chen & Renyuan Xu & Yumin Xu & Ruixun Zhang, 2025. "Diffusion Factor Models: Generating High-Dimensional Returns with Factor Structure," Papers 2504.06566, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    19. He, Yong & Zhang, Mingjuan & Zhang, Xinsheng & Zhou, Wang, 2020. "High-dimensional two-sample mean vectors test and support recovery with factor adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Chaieb, Ines & Langlois, Hugues & Scaillet, Olivier, 2021. "Factors and risk premia in individual international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 669-692.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2507.17599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.