Climate-Induced Yield Changes and TFP: How Much R&D Is Necessary to Maintain the Food Supply?

Increasing agricultural productivity is vital to ensure that global food demand can be met. However, the impact of a changing climate on temperatures and precipitation could potentially influence agricultural productivity by affecting crop yields. This report combines the latest estimates of yield changes from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project with projections of future productivity changes in the form of total factor productivity (TFP) to gain a better understanding of the future of agricultural production (and thus of food supply). Yield estimates are used from a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (to show an upper bound, as the impact of climate on yields is the strongest) for corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat. Yield changes are then combined with TFP estimates across four scenarios where research and development (R&D) assumptions determine the rate of TFP growth. Finally, the changes in yields and TFP, in conjunction with changes in populations and incomes, are assessed to shape the projected state of food supply in 2050. The results suggest that with no additional R&D expenditures, climate change would result in a production-consumption gap. When R&D investments are increased by amounts corresponding to the remaining three scenarios, TFP growth is sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change and projected population/income growth to maintain production at a level to meet global demand for food.