Evaluating the Impacts of Projected Yield Changes on India’s Wheat and Rice Markets

This report evaluates how yield changes induced by volatile weather trends can impact India’s production, prices, and trade of wheat and rice. Results from a computable general equilibrium model show that under two volatile weather trend scenarios (one that is considered business as usual and another that projects more volatile weather), India is expected to see an increase in average yields for both rice and wheat in the next two to three decades. While increasing per hectare yield leads to higher total rice production in this report’s model, an increase in household income and population (as projected by USDA, Economic Research Service) will lead to higher per capita demand for rice in India. According to model results, this demand is expected to lead to an estimated reduction in exports of both rice and wheat to the global market. Furthermore, results indicate that countries importing from India would shift their demand to other major rice and wheat exporters.