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Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Searching for Keys under the Streetlight

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  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Zanetti De Lima, Cicero

Abstract

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world.

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  • Hertel, Thomas & Zanetti De Lima, Cicero, 2020. "Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Searching for Keys under the Streetlight," Conference papers 333227, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333227
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    2. Young, Sera L., 2021. "Viewpoint: The measurement of water access and use is key for more effective food and nutrition policy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
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    5. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Angelo C. Gurgel & John Reilly & Elodie Blanc, 2021. "Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
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    8. Zhaojun Wang & Amanda M. Countryman & James J. Corbett & Mandana Saebi, 2021. "Economic and environmental impacts of ballast water management on Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries," Papers 2108.13315, arXiv.org.
    9. Hertel, Thomas W., 2021. "Educating the Next Generation of Interdisciplinary Researchers to Tackle Global Sustainability Challenges: A Graduate Course," Applied Economics Teaching Resources (AETR), Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(6), January.
    10. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," PSE Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    11. Wenmei Guo & Veeshan Rayamajhee & Alok K. Bohara, 2023. "Impacts of climate change on food utilization in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 630-659, February.
    12. Nihat Karakuş & Serdar Selim & Ceren Selim & Rifat Olgun & Ahmet Koç & Zeynep R. Ardahanlıoğlu & Sülem Şenyiğit Doğan & Nisa Ertoy, 2024. "Evaluation of Thermal Comfort Conditions in the Working Environments of Seasonal Agricultural Workers in Csa Koppen Climate Type," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-18, October.
    13. Neubauer, Florian & Wall, Alan & Njuki, Eric & Bravo-Ureta, Boris, 2023. "Climatic Effects and Farming Performance: An Overview of Selected Studies," 2023 Inter-Conference Symposium, April 19-21, 2023, Montevideo, Uruguay 338540, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Christopher B. Barrett, 2021. "Overcoming Global Food Security Challenges through Science and Solidarity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(2), pages 422-447, March.
    15. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    16. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    17. Anna Nagurney, 2021. "A Multiperiod Supply Chain Network Optimization Model with Investments in Labor Productivity Enhancements in an Era of COVID-19 and Climate Change," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena, 2021. "Droughts and Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers halshs-03420657, HAL.
    19. Adam Wąs & Vitaliy Krupin & Paweł Kobus & Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Robert Jeszke & Krystian Szczepański, 2021. "Towards Climate Neutrality in Poland by 2050: Assessment of Policy Implications in the Farm Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.

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