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The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India

Author

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  • Esha Zaveri

    (Stanford University
    The World Bank)

  • David Lobell

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

Irrigation has been pivotal in wheat’s rise as a major crop in India and is likely to be increasingly important as an adaptation response to climate change. Here we use historical data across 40 years to quantify the contribution of irrigation to wheat yield increases and the extent to which irrigation reduces sensitivity to heat. We estimate that national yields in the 2000s are 13% higher than they would have been without irrigation trends since 1970. Moreover, irrigated wheat exhibits roughly one-quarter of the heat sensitivity estimated for fully rainfed conditions. However, yield gains from irrigation expansion have slowed in recent years and negative impacts of warming have continued to accrue despite lower heat sensitivity from the widespread expansion of irrigation. We conclude that as constraints on expanding irrigation become more binding, furthering yield gains in the face of additional warming is likely to present an increasingly difficult challenge.

Suggested Citation

  • Esha Zaveri & David Lobell, 2019. "The role of irrigation in changing wheat yields and heat sensitivity in India," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12183-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12183-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Cooley & Steven M. Smith, 2022. "Center Pivot Irrigation Systems as a Form of Drought Risk Mitigation in Humid Regions," NBER Chapters, in: American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change, pages 135-171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Xun Su & Minpeng Chen, 2022. "Econometric Approaches That Consider Farmers’ Adaptation in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    3. Hubert Hirwa & Qiuying Zhang & Yunfeng Qiao & Yu Peng & Peifang Leng & Chao Tian & Sayidjakhon Khasanov & Fadong Li & Alphonse Kayiranga & Fabien Muhirwa & Auguste Cesar Itangishaka & Gabriel Habiyare, 2021. "Insights on Water and Climate Change in the Greater Horn of Africa: Connecting Virtual Water and Water-Energy-Food-Biodiversity-Health Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Xiaopei Tang & Haijun Liu & Li Yang & Lun Li & Jie Chang, 2022. "Energy Balance, Microclimate, and Crop Evapotranspiration of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under Sprinkler Irrigation," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Zhaoqi Zeng & Wenxiang Wu & Zhaolei Li & Yang Zhou & Han Huang, 2019. "Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in Southeast Gansu Province, Northwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Min Cui & Jizhou Zhang & Xianli Xia, 2022. "The Relationship between Child Rearing Burden and Farmers’ Adoption of Climate Adaptive Technology: Taking Water-Saving Irrigation Technology as an Example," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Sajid, Osama & Ifft, Jennifer & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2023. "The impact of extreme weather on farm finance - evidence from Kansas," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335443, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Pandey, Ghanshyam, 2021. "Benefits of irrigation against heat stress in agriculture: Evidence from wheat crop in India," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    9. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Bhan, Subhash C., 2021. "Climate change and land-use in Indian agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Kishore, Prabhat & Singh, Dharam R. & Srivastava, Shivendra & Kumar, Arun & Prakash, 2021. "Food-Groundwater-Energy nexus in Indian agriculture: Empirical evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," 2021 ASAE 10th International Conference (Virtual), January 11-13, Beijing, China 329408, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    11. Egerer, Sabine & Puente, Andrea Fajardo & Peichl, Michael & Rakovec, Oldrich & Samaniego, Luis & Schneider, Uwe A., 2023. "Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    12. Bhaskar Jyoti Neog, 2022. "Temperature shocks and rural labour markets: evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    13. Balsher Singh Sidhu & Zia Mehrabi & Milind Kandlikar & Navin Ramankutty, 2022. "On the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic factors in crop yield models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Sandeep Kandikuppa & Clark Gray, 2022. "Climate change and household debt in rural India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-27, August.
    15. Vis Taraz, 2023. "Public works programmes and agricultural risk: Evidence from India," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(2), pages 198-223, April.
    16. Wu, Bingfang & Ma, Zonghan & Boken, Vijendra K. & Zeng, Hongwei & Shang, Jiali & Igor, Savin & Wang, Jinxia & Yan, Nana, 2022. "Regional differences in the performance of drought mitigation measures in 12 major wheat-growing regions of the world," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    17. Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2022. "Assessing benefits of crop insurance vis-a-vis irrigation in Indian agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    18. Becker, Rike & Schüth, Christoph & Merz, Ralf & Khaliq, Tasneem & Usman, Muhammad & Beek, Tim aus der & Kumar, Rohini & Schulz, Stephan, 2023. "Increased heat stress reduces future yields of three major crops in Pakistan’s Punjab region despite intensification of irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    19. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    20. Francisco Fontes & Ashley Gorst & Charles Palmer, 2021. "Threshold effects of extreme weather events on cereal yields in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.
    21. Vanshika Dhamija & Roopam Shukla & Christoph Gornott & PK Joshi, 2020. "Consistency in Vulnerability Assessments of Wheat to Climate Change—A District-Level Analysis in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-16, October.
    22. Pratap S. Birthal & Jaweriah Hazrana & Digvijay S. Negi, 2021. "Effectiveness of Farmers’ Risk Management Strategies in Smallholder Agriculture: Evidence from India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-35, December.

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