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Forecast evaluations in meat demand analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zijun Wang

    (Private Enterprise Research Center, Academic Building West, Room 3028, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-4231., E-mail: z-wang@tamu.edu)

  • David A. Bessler

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-4231., E-mail: d-bessler@tamu.edu)

Abstract

This article offers a comparison of short-term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U.S. meat consumption. Four static demand systems (AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM) and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are considered. We tested the equality of mean square forecast errors. We also investigated the possibility of forecast encompassing among competing models. In general, the dynamic VECM model performed best, followed by the simple causal DGM model. Among three static systems, the AIDS model slightly leads the competition. Furthermore, this article provides the first evidence in literature on whether imposition of homogeneity restrictions on a cointegration space can improve the forecast accuracy of a VECM model: it does when it holds. [EconLit citations: Q10; C53]. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 19: 505-523, 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Zijun Wang & David A. Bessler, 2003. "Forecast evaluations in meat demand analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 505-523.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:19:y:2003:i:4:p:505-523
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.10074
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.10074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    2. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-538, Sept.-Oct.
    3. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
    4. Chambers, Marcus J., 1990. "Forecasting with demand systems : A comparative study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 363-376, June.
    5. Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    7. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
    8. Arthur Havenner & Atanu Saha, 1999. "Globally Flexible Asymptotically Ideal Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 703-710.
    9. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Bessler, David A., 2013. "Impacts of BSE and Avian Influenza on U.S. Meat Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150392, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Tullaya Boonsaeng & Michael K. Wohlgenant, 2009. "A Dynamic Approach to Estimating and Testing Separability in U.S. Demand for Imported and Domestic Meats," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(1), pages 139-157, March.
    3. Guy Chapda Nana & Bruno Larue, 2014. "Imposing curvature conditions on flexible functional forms for GNP functions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1411-1440, December.

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