Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems
Out-of-sample forecasting of annual U.S. per capita food consumption, applying data from 1923 to 1992, is used as a basis for model selection among the absolute price Rotterdam model, a first-differenced linear approximate almost ideal demand system (FDLA/ALIDS) model, and a first-differenced double-log demand system. Conditional-on-price consumption forecasts derived from elasticities are determined to be superior to direct statistical model forecasts. Models with consumer theory imposed through parametric restrictions provide better forecasts than models with little theory-imposition. For these data, a double-log demand system is a superior forecaster to the Rotterdam model, which is superior to the FDLA/ALIDS model. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.
Volume (Year): 78 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Moro, D. & Green, Richard D., 1994. "Maintaining and Testing Separability in Demand Systems," Staff General Research Papers 11247, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Waugh, Frederick V., 1964. "Demand and Price Analysis," Technical Bulletins 171213, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Jeffrey T. LaFrance, 1986. "The Structure of Constant Elasticity Demand Models," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-28, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Brester, Gary W. & Lhermite, Pascale & Goodwin, Barry K. & Hunt, Melvin C., 1993. "Quantifying The Effects Of New Product Development: The Case Of Low-Fat Ground Beef," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
- Alston, Julian M. & Chalfant, James A., 1991. "Can We Take The Con Out Of Meat Demand Studies?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:2:p:301-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.