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Impact of commodity price volatility on external debt: the role of exchange rate regimes

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  • Monoj Kumar Majumder
  • Mala Valliammai Raghavan
  • Joaquin L. Vespignani

Abstract

This study explores the impact of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation under fixed, managed, and floating exchange rate regimes. We estimate dynamic panel data models for 97 countries from 1993 to 2016. Our empirical findings show that commodity price volatility increases external debt accumulation for commodity-exporting countries. This impact is three-times higher for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes compared to managed floating exchange rate regimes. Under floating exchange regimes, the effect of commodity price volatility on external debt is statistically insignificant. Our results suggest that the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime by commodity-exporting countries is critical to mitigate the effects of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Valliammai Raghavan & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2021. "Impact of commodity price volatility on external debt: the role of exchange rate regimes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(57), pages 6626-6640, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:53:y:2021:i:57:p:6626-6640
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.1947960
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    Cited by:

    1. Henri Aurélien Ateba Boyomo & Ladifatou Gachili Ndi Gbambie & Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua & Mathilde Marthe Enouga & Jean-Galbert Ongono Olinga, 2025. "Effects of the agricultural food price volatility on external debt in Sub-Saharan Africa: does climate change matter?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(6), pages 1-25, June.
    2. Reyes-Tagle, Gerardo & Muñoz-Ayala, Jorge E., 2023. "Debt and Economic Growth: Does Size Matter? Evidence from Dynamic Parametric and Static Non-parametric Approaches," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12780, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Karanfil, Fatih, 2023. "Fiscal policy in oil and gas-exporting economies: Good times, bad times and ugly times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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