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Commodity price volatility, external debt and exchange rate regimes

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Abstract

This study explores the impact of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation under fixed, managed, and floating regimes. We estimate dynamic panel data models for 97 countries from 1993 to 2016. Our empirical findings show that commodity price volatility increases external debt accumulation for commodity-exporting countries. This impact is three times higher for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes compared to managed floating exchange rate regimes. Under floating exchange regimes, the effect of commodity price volatility on external debt is statistically insignificant. Our results suggest that the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime by commodity-exporting countries is critical to mitigate the effects of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation.

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  • Majumder, Monoj Kumar & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, external debt and exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 2020-13, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:35464
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price volatility; external debt; commodity-exporting countries; exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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