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Commodity Price Volatility, External Debt and Exchange Rate Regimes

Author

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  • Monoj Kumar Majumder
  • Mala Raghavan
  • Joaquin Vespignani

Abstract

This study explores the impact of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation under fixed, managed, and floating regimes. We estimate dynamic panel data models for 97 countries from 1993 to 2016. Our empirical findings show that commodity price volatility increases external debt accumulation for commodity-exporting countries. This impact is three-times higher for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes compared to managed floating exchange rate regimes. Under floating exchange regimes, the effect of commodity price volatility on external debt is statistically insignificant. Our results suggest that the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime by commodity-exporting countries is critical to mitigate the effects of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity Price Volatility, External Debt and Exchange Rate Regimes," CAMA Working Papers 2020-110, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-110
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/110_2020_Majumder_Raghavan_Vespignani.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrington, Sarah J. & Padilla, Leon & Herrera Pozo, Ronny Oswaldo, 2025. "How much debt is too much? Debt-growth dynamics in commodity-dependent and non-commodity-dependent developing economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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