IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2020-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Commodity price volatility, external debt and exchange rate regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Monoj Kumar Majumder
  • Mala Raghavan
  • Joaquin Vespignani

Abstract

This study explores the impact of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation under fixed, managed, and floating regimes. We estimate dynamic panel data models for 97 countries from 1993 to 2016. Our empirical findings show that commodity price volatility increases external debt accumulation for commodity-exporting countries. This impact is three-times higher for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes compared to managed floating exchange rate regimes. Under floating exchange regimes, the effect of commodity price volatility on external debt is statistically insignificant. Our results suggest that the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime by commodity-exporting countries is critical to mitigate the effects of commodity price volatility on external debt accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, external debt and exchange rate regimes," CAMA Working Papers 2020-110, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-12/110_2020_majumder_raghavan_vespignani_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    2. Manoel Bittencourt, 2015. "Determinants of Government and External Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 463-472, May.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    4. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
    5. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    6. Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2012. "Commodity Windfalls, Democracy and External Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 848-866, June.
    7. Edwards, Sebastian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 2005. "Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2079-2105, November.
    8. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    9. Irfan Nooruddin, 2008. "The Political Economy of National Debt Burdens, 1970--2000," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 156-185, June.
    10. S.Ibi Ajayi, 1991. "Macroeconomic approach to external debt The case of Nigeria," Working Papers 8, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    11. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    14. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1995/121, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Szirmai,Adam, 2005. "The Dynamics of Socio-Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520843, November.
    16. Mathias Hoffmann, 2007. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(295), pages 425-449, August.
    17. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    18. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Wróblewska, Justyna, 2016. "Exchange rate as a shock absorber in Poland and Slovakia: Evidence from Bayesian SVAR models with common serial correlation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 249-262.
    19. Léonce Ndikumana & James Boyce, 2000. "Is Africa a Net Creditor? New Estimates of Capital Flight from Severely Indebted Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1970-1996," Working Papers wp5, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    20. Radetzki,Marian & WÃ¥rell,Linda, 2016. "A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107129801, August.
    21. Issouf Samaké & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2012/112, International Monetary Fund.
    22. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2005:i:10:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Leandro Medina, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2010/192, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Mr. Mohsin S. Khan & Mr. Peter J Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries: Some Analytical Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 1991/009, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Samson Edo, 2002. "The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 221-236.
    26. SWARAY, Raymond B., 2005. "Primary Commodity Dependence And Debt Problem In Less Developed Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(4).
    27. Forslund, Kristine & Lima, Lycia & Panizza, Ugo, 2011. "The determinants of the composition of public debt in developing and emerging market countries," POLIS Working Papers 156, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    28. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2014. "Oil price volatility, fiscal policy and economic growth: a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis of some selected oil-exporting African countries," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(2), pages 127-148, June.
    29. Medina, Leandro, 2010. "A Commodity Curse? The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," MPRA Paper 21690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Raymond Swaray, 2005. "Primary Commodity Dependence and Debt Problem in Less Developed Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 28(10), pages 1.
    31. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    32. repec:imf:imfops:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Majumderad, Monoj Kumar & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2021. "Impact of Commodity Price Volatility on External Debt: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 105269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    4. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    5. KAFANDO, Namalguebzanga, 2014. "L'industrialisation de l'Afrique: l'importance des facteurs structurels et du régime de change [The industrialization of Africa: the importance of structural factors and exchange rate regime]," MPRA Paper 68736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    7. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Emerging And Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility'S Effects," Working Papers hal-01968082, HAL.
    8. Serhan Cevik & Richard D. F. Harris & Fatih Yilmaz, 2017. "Soft power and exchange rate volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 271-288, December.
    9. Jorge Carrera & Diego Bastourre, 2004. "Could the Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 309, Econometric Society.
    10. Hadj Fraj, Salma & Hamdaoui, Mekki & Maktouf, Samir, 2018. "Governance and economic growth: The role of the exchange rate regime," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 326-364.
    11. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    12. Christian Broda, 2002. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Staff Reports 148, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Aasim M. Husain, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2021. "Output volatility and exchange rates: New evidence from the updated de facto exchange rate regime classifications," MPRA Paper 107133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2021. "Cyclical drivers of fiscal policy in sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from the time-varying heterogeneity approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 51-67.
    17. Gaies, Brahim & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled, 2020. "Does financial globalization still spur growth in emerging and developing countries? Considering exchange rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    19. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers halshs-02175361, HAL.
    20. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2018. "How does democracy affect public debt? Evidence from the Arab world," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-54, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity price volatility; external debt; commodity-exporting countries; exchange rate regime;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.