IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jopoec/v26y2013i4p1457-1484.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Luciano Fanti

    ()

  • Mimmo Iannelli

    ()

  • Piero Manfredi

    ()

Abstract

Compared to other factors, the role of the age distribution of the population as a key endogenous determinant of economic growth trajectories has traditionally been overlooked. This is unrealistic, especially when dealing with major epochs of structural change, such as demographic transitions. We set up a model combining a simple representation of the economy, based on the neoclassical growth model of Solow, with a comprehensive representation of population dynamics. The model is used to investigate the structure of balanced growth states of the population and the economy in the presence of demographic transitions. The analysis shows that proper inclusion of age structure enriches the spectrum of the long-run equilibria of the neoclassical model, allowing up to five states of balanced growth, and shows the onset of “poverty” and “low-fertility” traps as different facets of fertility transitions. The role of different timing of fertility, mortality and savings transitions, and of more realistic demography of capital, is also considered. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2013. "Neoclassical growth with endogenous age distribution. Poverty vs low-fertility traps as steady states of demographic transitions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1457-1484, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:4:p:1457-1484
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0446-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-012-0446-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Prettner, 2013. "Population aging and endogenous economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 811-834, April.
    2. Holger Strulik, 2004. "Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(3), pages 433-453, August.
    3. Stephan Klasen & Thorsten Nestmann, 2006. "Population, population density and technological change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 611-626, July.
    4. Théophile T. Azomahou & Raouf Boucekkine & Bity Diene, 2009. "A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(2), pages 201-244.
    5. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
    6. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2002. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 340-375, June.
    7. Holger Strulik & Siddiqui Sikandar, 2002. "Tracing the income-fertility nexus: Nonparametric Estimates for a Panel of Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(5), pages 1-9.
    8. Hamid Faruqee, 2003. "Debt, Deficits, and Age-specific Mortality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 300-312, April.
    9. Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-538, October.
    10. Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth. A survey," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 18(4), pages 593-608, December.
    11. Antoine Bommier & Ronald D. Lee, 2003. "Overlapping generations models with realistic demography," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 135-160, February.
    12. Samuelson, Paul A, 1976. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population: Agreement and Evaluations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 516-525, June.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2002:i:5:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    15. Arthur, W Brian & McNicoll, Geoffrey, 1978. "Samuelson, Population and Intergenerational Transfers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(1), pages 241-246, February.
    16. Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Demographic Transition, Stagnation, and Demoeconomic Cycles in a Model for the Less Developed Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 397-413, April.
    17. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2006. "Savings–age profiles in the UK," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 521-541, July.
    18. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:metroe:v:69:y:2018:i:4:p:768-790 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2014. "Endogenous population with human and physical capital accumulation," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(3), pages 231-252, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:4:p:1457-1484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.