IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v133y2015i2p321-334.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kazi Ahmed
  • Guiling Wang
  • Miao Yu
  • Jawoo Koo
  • Liangzhi You

Abstract

Resilience of crops to climate change is extremely critical for global food security in coming decades. Decrease in productivity of certain crops as a consequence of changing climate has already been observed. In West Africa, a region extremely vulnerable to climate change, various studies predicted significant reduction in productivity of the major crops because of future warming and shift in precipitation patterns. However, most studies either follow statistical approaches or involve only specific sites. Here, using a process-based crop model at a regional scale, we project the future changes in cereal crop yields as a result of climate change for West African countries in the absence of agricultural intensification for climate adaptation. Without adaptation, the long-term mean of crop yield is projected to decrease in most of the countries (despite some projected increase of precipitation) by the middle of the century, while the inter-annual variability of yield increases significantly. This increase of yield variability is attributed to an increase of inter-annual variability of growing season temperature and/or precipitation in future climate scenarios. The lower mean yield and larger year-to-year variation together make the regional food security extremely volatile. For a comprehensive understanding of climate change impact on crop yield, the distribution of temperature and precipitation over specific growth stages, in addition to growing season averages, should be accounted for. Although uncertainties are rife in calibrating and running a process-based crop model at regional scale, the present study offers insight into potential vulnerabilities of the agricultural system in specific countries or West Africa as a whole because of regional climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:2:p:321-334
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1462-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1462-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1462-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    3. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    4. Miao Yu & Guiling Wang & Dana Parr & Kazi Ahmed, 2014. "Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 257-271, November.
    5. David B. Lobell & Graeme L. Hammer & Greg McLean & Carlos Messina & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 497-501, May.
    6. Alexis Berg & Benjamin Sultan & Nathalie Noblet-Ducoudré, 2011. "Including tropical croplands in a terrestrial biosphere model: application to West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 755-782, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riao, Dao & Guga, Suri & Bao, Yongbin & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Fanta F. Jabbi & Yu’e Li & Tianyi Zhang & Wang Bin & Waseem Hassan & You Songcai, 2021. "Impacts of Temperature Trends and SPEI on Yields of Major Cereal Crops in the Gambia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Mahama, T.A.-K. & Maharjan, K.L. & Issahaku, Z.A., 2018. "An analysis of Maize Yield Response to Agrochemical Expenditure using the Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) matching approach," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277072, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Haggblade, Steven & Me-Nsope, Nathalie M. & Staatz, John M., 2017. "Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 27-38.
    5. Enoch Bessah & Emmanuel A. Boakye & Sampson K. Agodzo & Emmanuel Nyadzi & Isaac Larbi & Alfred Awotwi, 2021. "Increased seasonal rainfall in the twenty-first century over Ghana and its potential implications for agriculture productivity," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12342-12365, August.
    6. Yang, Meijian & Wang, Guiling & Lazin, Rehenuma & Shen, Xinyi & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2021. "Impact of planting time soil moisture on cereal crop yield in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: A novel insight towards agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    8. Zhonghyun Kim & Taeyong Shim & Seo Jin Ki & Dongil Seo & Kwang-Guk An & Jinho Jung, 2021. "Evaluation of Classification Algorithms to Predict Largemouth Bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) Occurrence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-11, August.
    9. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Nuñez, Hector M. & Chakrabortu, Lopamudra & Robles-Chavez, Jesus Eduardo, 2021. "Impacts of Weather Shocks on Crop Yields in Mexico," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314988, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2015. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-92.
    3. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Chaturvedi, Anoop & Lacroix, Guy, 2022. "Robust Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models Using ?-Contamination: An Application to Crop Yields and Climate Change," IZA Discussion Papers 15815, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    5. Jane Kabubo-Mariara & Richard Mulwa, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change and climate variability and its implications for household food security in Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1289-1304, December.
    6. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    7. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Farmer Adaptation to Extreme Heat," Discussion Papers dp18-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    8. Schmidtner, Eva & Dabbert, Stephan & Lippert, Christian, 2015. "Do Different Measurements of Soil Quality Influence the Results of a Ricardian Analysis? – A Case Study on the Effects of Climate Change on German Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(02), June.
    9. Webber, Heidi & Gaiser, Thomas & Ewert, Frank, 2014. "What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 161-177.
    10. Sesmero, Juan P. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E. & Cook, Aaron M., 2015. "How do African Farm Households Adapt to Climate Change? A Structural Analysis from Malawi," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212688, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Etwire, Prince Maxwell, 2020. "The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    12. Song, Malin & Wang, Jianlin & Zhao, Jiajia, 2023. "Effects of rising and extreme temperatures on production factor efficiency: Evidence from China's cities," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    13. Fabri, Charlotte & Moretti, Michele & Passel, Steven Van, 2021. "On the (Ir)relevance of Heatwaves in Climate Change Impacts on European Agriculture," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314966, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Ayala Wineman & Thomas S Jayne, 2018. "Land Prices Heading Skyward? An Analysis of Farmland Values across Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 187-214.
    15. Charlotte Fabri & Michele Moretti & Steven Van Passel, 2022. "On the (ir)relevance of heatwaves in climate change impacts on European agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    17. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    18. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Anoop Chaturvedi & Guy Lacroix, 2023. "Robust dynamic space–time panel data models using $$\varepsilon $$ ε -contamination: an application to crop yields and climate change," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2475-2509, June.
    19. Lazzaroni, S. & Bedi, A.S., 2014. "Weather variability and food consumption," ISS Working Papers - General Series 51272, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    20. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:2:p:321-334. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.