Impacts of biocapacity, climate change, food vulnerability, readiness and adaptive capacity on cereal crops yield: evidence from Africa

It is often hypothesized that adaptive capacity leads to increased yield. However, the veracity of this assumption in quantitative terms has largely remained understudied by researchers. Also, adaptation depends on the vulnerability of the agricultural sector, climate risks, biocapacity of the area, readiness and adaptive capacities of stakeholders. Adaptation can only take place if stakeholders are ready to respond and resources are also available. To understand these relationships, the paper examined the impacts of climate change, food vulnerability, adaptive capacity, biocapacity and readiness on yields of major cereal crops in thirty-five African countries. We used the panel autoregressive distributive lag model to analyse publicly available panel data obtained from FAOSTAT, Global Foot Print Network, and Notre Dame Adaptation Index databases, and World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal. The results show that biocapacity, adaptive capacity, food sector vulnerability, and temperature decreased rice yield in the long. Biocapacity increased maize and sorghum yields, while adaptive capacity decreased their yields in the long run. Food sector vulnerability and temperature decreased maize yield in the long run, while temperature increased sorghum yield in the long run. The results suggest that improvement in adaptive capacity is an important policy tool to increase the yield of some cereal crops.