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Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Author

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  • Luxon Nhamo

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI-SA), 141 Cresswell St, Weavind Park, Silverton 0184, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Greenwell Matchaya

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI-SA), 141 Cresswell St, Weavind Park, Silverton 0184, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi

    (Centre for Transformative Agricultural and Food Systems, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, P/Bag X01, Scottsville 3209, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

  • Sibusiso Nhlengethwa

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI-SA), 141 Cresswell St, Weavind Park, Silverton 0184, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Charles Nhemachena

    (International Water Management Institute (IWMI-SA), 141 Cresswell St, Weavind Park, Silverton 0184, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Sylvester Mpandeli

    (Water Research Commission, 4 Daventry Street, Lynnwood Manor, Pretoria 0081, South Africa
    School of Environmental Sciences, University of Venda, Private Bag X 5050, Thohoyandou 0950, South Africa)

Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/2016 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

Suggested Citation

  • Luxon Nhamo & Greenwell Matchaya & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Sibusiso Nhlengethwa & Charles Nhemachena & Sylvester Mpandeli, 2019. "Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:9:y:2019:i:2:p:30-:d:202756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Matchaya, Greenwell & Nhamo, Luxon & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles, 2019. "An overview of water markets in southern Africa: an option for water management in times of scarcity," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 11(5):1-16..
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