IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i24p16469-d997320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gift Nxumalo

    (Institute of Water and Environmental Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Bashar Bashir

    (Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia)

  • Karam Alsafadi

    (School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

  • Hussein Bachir

    (Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany)

  • Endre Harsányi

    (Institutes for Agricultural Research and Educational Farm, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary
    Institute of Land Use, Technical and Precision Technology, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Sana Arshad

    (Department of Geography, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur 63100, Pakistan)

  • Safwan Mohammed

    (Institutes for Agricultural Research and Educational Farm, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary
    Institute of Land Use, Technical and Precision Technology, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

Abstract

Drought is one of the natural hazards that have negatively affected the agricultural sector worldwide. The aims of this study were to track drought characteristics (duration (DD), severity (DS), and frequency (DF)) in South Africa between 2002 and 2021 and to evaluate its impact on wheat production. Climate data were collected from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) along with wheat yield data from the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (2002–2021). The standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated on 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, and the trend was then tracked using the Mann–Kendall (MK) test. To signify the climatic effects on crop yield, the standardized yield residual series (SYRS) was computed along with the crop-drought resilience factor (CR) on a provincial scale (2002–2021). The output of the SPI analysis for 32 stations covering all of South Africa indicates a drought tendency across the country. On a regional scale, western coastal provinces (WES-C and NR-C) have been more vulnerable to meteorological droughts over the past 20 years. Positive correlation results between SYRS and wheat yield indicate that the WES-C province was highly influenced by drought during all stages of wheat growth (Apr–Nov). Historical drought spells in 2003, 2009, and 2010 with low CR = 0.64 caused the province to be highly impacted by the negative impacts of droughts on yield loss. Overall, drought events have historically impacted the western part of the country and dominated in the coastal area. Thus, mitigation plans should be commenced, and priority should be given to this region. These findings can assist policymakers in budgeting for irrigation demand in rainfed agricultural regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gift Nxumalo & Bashar Bashir & Karam Alsafadi & Hussein Bachir & Endre Harsányi & Sana Arshad & Safwan Mohammed, 2022. "Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:24:p:16469-:d:997320
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/24/16469/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/24/16469/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nhamo, Luxon & Matchaya, Greenwell & Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles & Mpandeli, S., "undated". "Cereal production trends under climate change: impacts and adaptation strategies in Southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H049086, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
    3. Luxon Nhamo & Greenwell Matchaya & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Sibusiso Nhlengethwa & Charles Nhemachena & Sylvester Mpandeli, 2019. "Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Cynthia Rosenzweig & Francesco Tubiello, 2007. "Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 855-873, June.
    5. Araneda-Cabrera, Ronnie J. & Bermúdez, María & Puertas, Jerónimo, 2021. "Assessment of the performance of drought indices for explaining crop yield variability at the national scale: Methodological framework and application to Mozambique," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    6. Zhenya Li & Zulfiqar Ali & Tong Cui & Sadia Qamar & Muhammad Ismail & Amna Nazeer & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 547-576, August.
    7. Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska, 2016. "Socio-Economic Implications of Drought in the Agricultural Sector and the State Economy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-11, September.
    8. J. N. Okpara & E. A. Afiesimama & A. C. Anuforom & A. Owino & K. O. Ogunjobi, 2017. "The applicability of Standardized Precipitation Index: drought characterization for early warning system and weather index insurance in West Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 555-583, November.
    9. Bethuel Sibongiseni Ngcamu & Felix Chari, 2020. "Drought Influences on Food Insecurity in Africa: A Systematic Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Mpandeli, S. & Nhamo, Luxon & Moeletsi, M. & Masupha, T. & Magidi, J. & Tshikolomo, K. & Liphadzi, S. & Naidoo, D. & Mabhaudhi, T., 2019. "Assessing climate change and adaptive capacity at local scale using observed and remotely sensed data," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-26:100240.
    11. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    12. Cynthia Rosenzweig & David Karoly & Marta Vicarelli & Peter Neofotis & Qigang Wu & Gino Casassa & Annette Menzel & Terry L. Root & Nicole Estrella & Bernard Seguin & Piotr Tryjanowski & Chunzhen Liu &, 2008. "Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7193), pages 353-357, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vuwani Makuya & Weldemichael Tesfuhuney & Mokhele E. Moeletsi & Zaid Bello, 2024. "Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magidi, J. & van Koppen, Barbara & Nhamo, L. & Mpandeli, S. & Slotow, R. & Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe, 2021. "Informing equitable water and food policies through accurate spatial information on irrigated areas in smallholder farming systems," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-13(24):36.
    2. Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi & Luxon Nhamo & Sylvester Mpandeli & Charles Nhemachena & Aidan Senzanje & Nafisa Sobratee & Pauline Paidamoyo Chivenge & Rob Slotow & Dhesigen Naidoo & Stanley Liphadzi & Albe, 2019. "The Water–Energy–Food Nexus as a Tool to Transform Rural Livelihoods and Well-Being in Southern Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Andekelile Mwamahonje & John Saviour Yaw Eleblu & Kwadwo Ofori & Santosh Deshpande & Tileye Feyissa & William Elisha Bakuza, 2021. "Sorghum Production Constraints, Trait Preferences, and Strategies to Combat Drought in Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Matchaya, Greenwell & Nhamo, Luxon & Nhlengethwa, Sibusiso & Nhemachena, Charles, 2019. "An overview of water markets in southern Africa: an option for water management in times of scarcity," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 11(5):1-16..
    5. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    6. Hillary Mugiyo & Vimbayi G. P. Chimonyo & Mbulisi Sibanda & Richard Kunz & Cecilia R. Masemola & Albert T. Modi & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2021. "Evaluation of Land Suitability Methods with Reference to Neglected and Underutilised Crop Species: A Scoping Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Clinton Carbutt & Dave I. Thompson, 2021. "Mountain Watch: How LT(S)ER Is Safeguarding Southern Africa’s People and Biodiversity for a Sustainable Mountain Future," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Mabhaudhi, T. & Nhamo, Luxon & Mpandeli, S. & Nhemachena, Charles & Senzanje, A. & Sobratee, N. & Chivenge, P. P. & Slotow, R. & Naidoo, D. & Liphadzi, S. & Modi, A. T., 2019. "The water–energy–food nexus as a tool to transform rural livelihoods and well-being in southern Africa," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 16(16):1-20.
    9. Daniel Maposa & Anna M. Seimela & Caston Sigauke & James J. Cochran, 2021. "Modelling temperature extremes in the Limpopo province: bivariate time-varying threshold excess approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2227-2246, July.
    10. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    11. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    12. William Ginn, 2022. "Climate Disasters and the Macroeconomy: Does State-Dependence Matter? Evidence for the US," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 141-161, March.
    13. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    14. Jules Gazeaud & Victor Stephane, 2023. "Productive Workfare? Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 265-290, January.
    15. Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Abolfazl Mosaedi, 2018. "Assessing a Multivariate Approach Based on Scalogram Analysis for Agricultural Drought Monitoring," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(10), pages 3423-3440, August.
    16. Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Ajmal & Joo Heon Lee & Tae-Woong Kim, 2016. "Multivariate Drought Assessment Considering the Antecedent Drought Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4221-4231, September.
    17. Lybbert, Travis & Sumner, Daniel, 2010. "Agricultural Technologies for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Developing Countries: Policy Options for Innovation and Technology Diffusion," Climate Change 320104, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    18. Monika Winn & Manfred Kirchgeorg & Andrew Griffiths & Martina K. Linnenluecke & Elmar Günther, 2011. "Impacts from climate change on organizations: a conceptual foundation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 157-173, March.
    19. Jianhong Mu & Anne Wein & Bruce McCarl, 2015. "Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1041-1054, October.
    20. Lampros Vasiliades & Athanasios Loukas & Nikos Liberis, 2011. "A Water Balance Derived Drought Index for Pinios River Basin, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1087-1101, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:24:p:16469-:d:997320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.