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Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs

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  • Miao Yu
  • Guiling Wang
  • Dana Parr
  • Kazi Ahmed

Abstract

Future changes of terrestrial ecosystems due to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, especially for vegetation in the Tropics. Here, we evaluate the natural vegetation response to projected future changes using an improved version of a dynamic vegetation model (CLM-CN-DV) driven with climate change projections from 19 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The simulated equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical climate (1981–2000) has been compared with that under the projected future climate (2081–2100) scenario for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) to qualitatively assess how natural potential vegetation might change in the future. With one outlier excluded, the ensemble average of vegetation changes corresponding to climates of 18 GCMs shows a poleward shift of forests in northern Eurasia and North America, which is consistent with findings from previous studies. It also shows a general “upgrade” of vegetation type in the Tropics and most of the temperate zones, in the form of deciduous trees and shrubs taking over C3 grass in Europe and broadleaf deciduous trees taking over C4 grasses in Central Africa and the Amazon. LAI and NPP are projected to increase in the high latitudes, southeastern Asia, southeastern North America, and Central Africa. This results from CO 2 fertilization, enhanced water use efficiency, and in the extra-tropics warming. However, both LAI and NPP are projected to decrease in the Amazon due to drought. The competing impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization lead to large uncertainties in the projection of future vegetation changes in the Tropics. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Miao Yu & Guiling Wang & Dana Parr & Kazi Ahmed, 2014. "Future changes of the terrestrial ecosystem based on a dynamic vegetation model driven with RCP8.5 climate projections from 19 GCMs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 257-271, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:2:p:257-271
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1249-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samuel Levis, 2010. "Modeling vegetation and land use in models of the Earth System," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(6), pages 840-856, November.
    2. Martin Heimann & Markus Reichstein, 2008. "Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7176), pages 289-292, January.
    3. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
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    5. Sato, Hisashi & Itoh, Akihiko & Kohyama, Takashi, 2007. "SEIB–DGVM: A new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model using a spatially explicit individual-based approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 279-307.
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    Cited by:

    1. Irfan Rashid & Shakil Romshoo & Rajiv Chaturvedi & N. Ravindranath & Raman Sukumar & Mathangi Jayaraman & Thatiparthi Lakshmi & Jagmohan Sharma, 2015. "Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 601-613, October.
    2. Juan F. Fernández-Manjarrés & Paloma Ruiz-Benito & Miguel A. Zavala & J. Julio Camarero & Fernando Pulido & Vânia Proença & Laetitia Navarro & Roxane Sansilvestri & Elena Granda & Laura Marqués & Mart, 2018. "Forest Adaptation to Climate Change along Steep Ecological Gradients: The Case of the Mediterranean-Temperate Transition in South-Western Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Peng Cai & Chaofan Li & Geping Luo & Chi Zhang & Friday Uchenna Ochege & Steven Caluwaerts & Lesley De Cruz & Rozemien De Troch & Sara Top & Piet Termonia & Philippe De Maeyer, 2020. "The Responses of the Ecosystems in the Tianshan North Slope under Multiple Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios in the Middle of the 21st Century," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    4. Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.

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