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Adapting Seasonal Rice Cultivation Strategies for Food Security in Response to Climate Change Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng Li

    (School of Government, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China)

  • Xiaojie Mao

    (School of Government, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China)

  • Mingxing Zheng

    (Department of Construction Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

  • Mingyang Han

    (School of Government, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

An in-depth examination of the effects of climate change on rice yield in China, encompassing various rice types, is crucial for ensuring the nation’s food security. This study develops an “economy-climate” theoretical model and employs Panel Corrected Standard Error Estimation (PCSE) on panel data spanning from 1978 to 2018, sourced from China’s primary grain-producing regions. The analysis delves into the impact of climate variables, including precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration, on overall rice production and different rice types. Overall, the findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between precipitation, temperature, sunshine duration, and rice yield, characterized by an “inverted U-shaped” pattern. However, significant variations exist in the effects on different rice types across China’s main grain-producing areas. Increasing precipitation generally enhances early rice production across provinces and also augments mid-season and one-season-late rice production in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hebei, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Shandong Province. Conversely, it reduces mid-season and one-season-late rice output in Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. Sichuan Province sees a rise in temperature favoring early and double-season-late rice production, unlike other provinces. For mid-season and one-season-late rice, temperature increases benefit output in Heilongjiang Province but not in other regions. Additionally, prolonged sunshine duration boosts early and double-season-late rice production across all provinces but does not have the same effect on mid-season and one-season-late rice in China’s primary grain-producing areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Li & Xiaojie Mao & Mingxing Zheng & Mingyang Han, 2024. "Adapting Seasonal Rice Cultivation Strategies for Food Security in Response to Climate Change Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:16:p:6748-:d:1451418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jayne, T. S. & Jones, Stephen, 1997. "Food marketing and pricing policy in Eastern and Southern Africa: A survey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1505-1527, September.
    3. An, Ning & Thomassin, Paul J., 2015. "The economic impact of climate change on cash crop farms in Quebec and Ontario," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205702, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.
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