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WTO Accession, Rural Labour Migration and Urban Unemployment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Fan Zhai

    (Department of Policy and Fiscal Affairs, Ministry of Finance, PRC, Sanfihe, Xicheng District, Beijing 100820, P. R. China, fzhai_99@yahoo.com)

  • Zhi Wang

    (School of Computational Sciences, George Mason University, and with the Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, 1800 M Street, NW, Room N2109, Washington, DC 20036, USA, zwang@ers.usda.gov)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the rural-urban migration and urban unemployment effects of China's WTO accession based on the China-US bilateral agreement on market accession. The evaluation is conducted by a 53-sector recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China benchmarked to a most recent version of the Chinese Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The simulation results show that there is a great need for co-ordination between China's rural-urban migration policy, labour market reform and the implementation of trade liberalisation measures after China's WTO entry. The net benefit from WTO membership will be maximised if China adopts a policy gradually to relax its rural-urban migration control in conjunction with its labour market reform. Doing so not only prevents a dramatic worsening of the urban unemployment problem, but also permits enough labour market flexibility to create more employment opportunities for rural unskilled labour shifted out of the farming sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan Zhai & Zhi Wang, 2002. "WTO Accession, Rural Labour Migration and Urban Unemployment in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 39(12), pages 2199-2217, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:39:y:2002:i:12:p:2199-2217
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098022000033827
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. De Melo, Jaime, 1988. "CGE models for the analysis of trade policy in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hertel, Thomas & Zhai, Fan, 2006. "Labor market distortions, rural-urban inequality and the opening of China's economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 76-109, January.
    2. Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2014. "The economic effects of facilitating the flow of rural workers to urban employment in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 619-642, August.
    3. Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark Jonathan, 2006. "Economic Integration, Poverty and Regional Inequality in Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(4), February.
    4. Kleinwechter, Ulrich & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Trade policy impacts under alternative land market regimes in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1071-1089.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Huang, Jikun & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 443-456.
    6. Jin, Songqing & Deininger, Klaus, 2009. "Land rental markets in the process of rural structural transformation: Productivity and equity impacts from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 629-646, December.
    7. Lall, Somik V. & Selod, Harris & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2006. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries : a survey of theoretical predictions and empirical findings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3915, The World Bank.
    8. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing & Xia, Fang & Huang, Jikun, 2014. "Moving Off the Farm: Land Institutions to Facilitate Structural Transformation and Agricultural Productivity Growth in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 505-520.
    9. Colin A. Carter & Andrew J. Estrin, 2005. "Opening of China's Trade, Labour Market Reform and Impact on Rural Wages," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(6), pages 823-839, June.
    10. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing, 2007. "Land rental markets in the process of rural structural transformation : productivity and equity impacts in China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4454, The World Bank.
    11. Bach Nguyen, 2022. "Internal migration and earnings: Do migrant entrepreneurs and migrant employees differ?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(4), pages 901-944, August.
    12. Shuguang Liu & Xiaowen Tang & Yubin Zhao, 2024. "Global Value Chain Participation, Employment Structure, and Urban–Rural Income Gap in the Context of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2009. "The effects of facilitating the flow of rural workers to urban employment in China," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-188, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    14. Qingjie Xia & Colin Simmons, 2004. "The Determinants of Labour-time Allocation between Farm and Off-farm Work in Rural China: the Case of Liaoning Province," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 169-184.
    15. Deininger, Klaus & Jin, Songqing, 2005. "The potential of land rental markets in the process of economic development: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 241-270, October.
    16. Zhongmin Wu & Shujie Yao, 2006. "On Unemployment Inflow and Outflow in Urban China," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 811-822.
    17. Hertel, Thomas & Zhai, Fan, 2006. "Labor market distortions, rural-urban inequality and the opening of China's economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 76-109, January.
    18. Zeng, Douglas Zhihua, 2005. "China's employment challenges and strategies after the WTO accession," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3522, The World Bank.
    19. Dorothee Flaig & Harald Grethe & Scott McDonald & Khalid Siddig, 2012. "Intersectoral factor movements: do adjustment costs matter for welfare?," EcoMod2012 4418, EcoMod.
    20. Anton Votinov & Samvel Lazaryan & Yulia Polshchikova, 2023. "The Impact of the Cross-Sectoral Economic Structure on the Properties of DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(1), pages 32-54, March.
    21. Jing Cao, 2008. "A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Environmental Taxation and "Rural-Urban" Migration Distrotions in China," EEPSEA Research Report rr2008011, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Jan 2008.
    22. Gentian Qejvanaj, 2021. "Poverty Relief Programs in Postcommunist Countries: A Case Study on the Albanian and Chinese Programs," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.

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