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Human capital and the quantity–quality trade-off during the demographic transition

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Listed author(s):
  • Alan Fernihough

    ()

    (Queen’s University Belfast)

Abstract

Abstract This paper provides an empirical test of the child quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off predicted by unified growth theory. Using individual census returns from the 1911 Irish census, we examine whether children who attended school were from smaller families—as predicted by a standard QQ model. To measure causal effects, we use a selection of models robust to endogeneity concerns which we validate for this application using an Empirical Monte Carlo analysis. Our results show that a child remaining in school between the ages of 14 and 16 caused up to a 27 % reduction in fertility. Our results are robust to alternative estimation techniques with different modeling assumptions, sample selection, and alternative definitions of fertility. These findings highlight the importance of the demographic transition as a mechanism which underpinned the expansion in human capital witnessed in Western economies during the twentieth century.

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File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10887-016-9138-3
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economic Growth.

Volume (Year): 22 (2017)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 35-65

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:22:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10887-016-9138-3
DOI: 10.1007/s10887-016-9138-3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/growth/journal/10887/PS2

Keywords: Quantity–quality; Human capital; Demographic transition; Unified growth theory;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
  • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
  • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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