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Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals

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  • Araujo, Claudio
  • Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine
  • Brunelin, Stéphanie

Abstract

This paper aims at exploiting grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify markets which play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying price crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period preceding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements at leading markets during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future price crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Claudio & Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine & Brunelin, Stéphanie, 2012. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1882-1894.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:40:y:2012:i:9:p:1882-1894
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Muller & Nouréini Sayouti, 2021. "How does information on minimum and maximum food prices affect measured monetary poverty ? Evidence from Niger," Working Papers halshs-03097641, HAL.
    2. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphanie Brunelin & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Impact of climate related shocks on child's health in Burkina Faso," Working Papers halshs-00725253, HAL.
    3. Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari & Anatole Goundan, 2018. "Nontraded food commodity spatial price transmission: evidence from the Niger millet market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 147-156, March.
    4. Mujahid, Irfan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2015. "Food Price Crisis in Indonesia: Alert from the Key Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205277, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O., 2015. "Fertilizer subsidies, political influence and local food prices in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-24.
    6. Blasques, Francisco & Nientker, Marc, 2023. "Stochastic properties of nonlinear locally-nonstationary filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2082-2095.
    7. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphanie Brunelin & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Impact of climate related shocks on child's health in Burkina Faso," CERDI Working papers halshs-00725253, HAL.
    8. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2016. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 714-735.
    9. Sanusi, Olajide I. & Safi, Samir K. & Adeeko, Omotara & Tabash, Mosab I., 2022. "Forecasting agricultural commodity price using different models: a case study of widely consumed grains in Nigeria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(2), June.
    10. Nouréini Sayouti & Christophe Muller, 2021. "How does information on minimum and maximum food prices affect measured monetary poverty ? Evidence from Niger," CERDI Working papers hal-03117686, HAL.
    11. CSC Sekhar & Yogesh Bhat & Namrata Thapa, 2023. "Identification Of Nodal Agricultural Markets For Price Monitoring," IEG Working Papers 456, Institute of Economic Growth.
    12. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00626409, HAL.

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