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Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals

Author

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  • Araujo, Claudio
  • Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine
  • Brunelin, Stephanie

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to exploit grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify which markets play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period proceeding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements on "leading markets" during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Araujo, Claudio & Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine & Brunelin, Stephanie, 2011. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114226, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114226
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114226
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2008. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9787111235767, May.
    3. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Performance of Rice Markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 Famine," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 15-29, March.
    4. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food security; Africa; Niger; early warning systems; discrete choice panel model; Food Security and Poverty; Q18; C25; D40; O18;

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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