Alert at Maradi: preventing food crisis using price signals
National early warning systems of Sahelian countries are mainly based on biophysics models to predict agricultural production shortages and prevent food crisis. The objective of this paper is to show that cereal market prices also bring useful information on future food availability that could complete current early warning disposals. Indeed, at any point in time prices are informative not only on the state of present food availability but also on agents’ expectations about future availability. The research is based on the exploitation of the statistical properties of price series. It aims at detecting movements in the prices trend signalling a coming crisis. We first identify markets playing a leading role in price formation at the national and regional level through the estimation of VAR models. The second step consists in identifying crisis periods and then the price shocks characterises during the period which precedes a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The data set encompasses 50 markets belonging to three countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, over the period 1990-2008. The results show that past price shocks on a few number of leading marketplaces can help preventing coming crises.
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- Claudio ARAUJO & Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Johny EGG, 2010.
"Choc pétrolier et performance des marchés du mil au Niger,"
- Claudio ARAUJO & Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Johny EGG, 2008. "Choc pétrolier et performance des marchés du mil au Niger," Working Papers 200830, CERDI.
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"On The Behavior of Commodity Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean-Paul Azam & Catherine Bonjean, 1995. "La formation du prix du riz : théorie et application au cas d'Antananarivo (Madagascar) ," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(4), pages 1145-1166.
- Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Johny EGG & Magali AUBERT, 2008.
"Commerce du mil en Afrique de l’Ouest : les frontières abolies ?,"
- Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Magali Aubert & Johny Egg, 2011. "Commerce du mil en Afrique de l'Ouest : les frontières abolies ?," Working Papers halshs-00556667, HAL.
- Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-Louis Combes, 2010. "De la mesure de l'intégration des marchés agricoles dans les pays en développement," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 18(1), pages 5-20.
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