IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00714092.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Araujo

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Catherine Araujo Bonjean

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphanie Brunelin

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper aims at exploiting grain price data to detect the warning signs of looming food crises in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Firstly we identify markets which play a leading role at the national and regional level. The second step consists of identifying price crisis periods and characterizing price movements during the period preceding a crisis. This analysis leads to the identification of early warning indicators whose relevance is tested using panel data qualitative choice models. The results show that monitoring price movements at leading markets during crucial periods of the year can help in forecasting future price crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Araujo & Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphanie Brunelin, 2012. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises by Using Price Signals," Post-Print halshs-00714092, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00714092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Ravallion, 1997. "Famines and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1205-1242, September.
    2. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    4. Jenny C. Aker, 2010. "Chocs pluviométriques, marchés et crises alimentaires : l'effet de la sécheresse sur les marchés céréaliers au Niger," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 18(1), pages 71-108.
    5. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    7. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2007. "Making Famine History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 5-38, March.
    8. Cameron,A. Colin & Trivedi,Pravin K., 2005. "Microeconometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521848053, November.
    9. Lancaster, Tony, 2000. "The incidental parameter problem since 1948," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 391-413, April.
    10. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    11. Ravallion, Martin, 1985. "The Performance of Rice Markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 Famine," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 15-29, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Muller & Nouréini Sayouti, 2021. "How does information on minimum and maximum food prices affect measured monetary poverty ? Evidence from Niger," Working Papers halshs-03097641, HAL.
    2. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphanie Brunelin & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Impact of climate related shocks on child's health in Burkina Faso," Working Papers halshs-00725253, HAL.
    3. Mahamadou Roufahi Tankari & Anatole Goundan, 2018. "Nontraded food commodity spatial price transmission: evidence from the Niger millet market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 147-156, March.
    4. Mujahid, Irfan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2015. "Food Price Crisis in Indonesia: Alert from the Key Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205277, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis Saweda O., 2015. "Fertilizer subsidies, political influence and local food prices in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-24.
    6. Blasques, Francisco & Nientker, Marc, 2023. "Stochastic properties of nonlinear locally-nonstationary filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2082-2095.
    7. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Stéphanie Brunelin & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Impact of climate related shocks on child's health in Burkina Faso," CERDI Working papers halshs-00725253, HAL.
    8. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2016. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 714-735.
    9. Sanusi, Olajide I. & Safi, Samir K. & Adeeko, Omotara & Tabash, Mosab I., 2022. "Forecasting agricultural commodity price using different models: a case study of widely consumed grains in Nigeria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(2), June.
    10. Nouréini Sayouti & Christophe Muller, 2021. "How does information on minimum and maximum food prices affect measured monetary poverty ? Evidence from Niger," CERDI Working papers hal-03117686, HAL.
    11. CSC Sekhar & Yogesh Bhat & Namrata Thapa, 2023. "Identification Of Nodal Agricultural Markets For Price Monitoring," IEG Working Papers 456, Institute of Economic Growth.
    12. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2012. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00626409, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Araujo, Claudio & Araujo-Bonjean, Catherine & Brunelin, Stephanie, 2011. "Alert at Maradi: Preventing Food Crises in West Africa by Using Price Signals," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114226, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Claudio ARAUJO & Stephanie BRUNELIN, 2010. "Alert at Maradi: preventing food crisis using price signals," Working Papers 201023, CERDI.
    3. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2014. "A Within Estimator for Three-Level Data: An Application to the WTO Effect on Trade Flows," Discussion Papers Series 501, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Bartolucci, Francesco & Belotti, Federico & Peracchi, Franco, 2015. "Testing for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in generalized linear models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 111-123.
    5. Elek, P. & Varadi, B. & Varga, M., 2014. "Effects of geographical accessibility on the use of outpatient care services: quasi-experimental evidence from administrative panel data," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 14/17, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, 2022. "The Role of Conditional Likelihoods in Latent Variable Modeling," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 799-834, September.
    7. Martin, Robert S., 2017. "Estimation of average marginal effects in multiplicative unobserved effects panel models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 16-19.
    8. Lippi Bruni, Matteo & Mammi, Irene & Ugolini, Cristina, 2016. "Does the extension of primary care practice opening hours reduce the use of emergency services?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-155.
    9. Mehzabin Tuli, Farzana & Mitra, Suman & Crews, Mariah B., 2021. "Factors influencing the usage of shared E-scooters in Chicago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 164-185.
    10. Iván Fernández-Val & Martin Weidner, 2018. "Fixed Effects Estimation of Large-TPanel Data Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 109-138, August.
    11. Trottmann, Maria & Zweifel, Peter & Beck, Konstantin, 2012. "Supply-side and demand-side cost sharing in deregulated social health insurance: Which is more effective?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 231-242.
    12. Greene, William, 2007. "Functional Form and Heterogeneity in Models for Count Data," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 113-218, August.
    13. Raf Van Gestel & Tobias Müller & Johan Bosmans, 2018. "Learning from failure in healthcare: Dynamic panel evidence of a physician shock effect," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(9), pages 1340-1353, September.
    14. Antoine Djogbenou & Christian Gouriéroux & Joann Jasiak & Paul Rilstone, 2022. "An Econometric Panel Data Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 1-3.
    15. Jonathan Colmer, 2013. "Climate Variability, Child Labour and Schooling: Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margin," GRI Working Papers 132, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    16. Lorenzo Cassi & Anne Plunket, 2014. "Proximity, network formation and inventive performance: in search of the proximity paradox," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(2), pages 395-422, September.
    17. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    18. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3vl5fe4i569nbr005tctlc8ll5 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Anirudh Shingal & Malte Ehrich, 2019. "Trade effects of standards harmonization in the EU: improved access for non-EU partners," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Working Paper 372, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi, India.
    21. Niklas Elert, 2014. "What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 55-92, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00714092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.