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Crimes of the current: Natural disasters and crime in Kenya

Author

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  • Kalsi, Jaslin
  • Mackay, Robert
  • Mavisakalyan, Astghik
  • Tarverdi, Yashar

Abstract

This paper studies the link between natural disasters and crime, drawing on a case study of Kenya and employing a mixed method approach. Matching data on 412 disaster locations from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset with data on over 9,500 individuals from the Kenyan Afrobarometer survey over the period from 2003 to 2014, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the link between disaster exposure and experiences of crime, documenting a strong positive relationship. These findings are complemented by an analysis of primary data collected through 75 semi-structured interviews in Baringo region of Kenya which was severely impacted by the 2020 East Valley Rift flooding. The analysis of primary data confirms the positive relationship between disaster exposure and crime. To understand the possible mechanisms, we combine a descriptive quantitative analysis with qualitative content analysis. Both approaches suggest that cost-benefit considerations as well as stress induced by a disaster are likely at play in the observed patterns of increased crime in a post-disaster setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalsi, Jaslin & Mackay, Robert & Mavisakalyan, Astghik & Tarverdi, Yashar, 2025. "Crimes of the current: Natural disasters and crime in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000671
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106982
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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