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How do climate risk and geopolitical risk impact shipping markets?

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  • Wu, Ruirui

Abstract

Shipping markets are experiencing heightened uncertainty and volatility as climate risk and geopolitical risk increase. This work uncovers the effects of climate and geopolitical risks on front, middle and end shipping markets. To this end, this work comprehensively uses time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness and cross-quantilogram methods. The results of the TVP-VAR connectedness method show that geopolitical risk has a greater impact on shipping markets than climate risk. Climate risk transmits more information to middle shipping markets, whereas geopolitical risk transmits more information to front and end shipping markets. Further, the results of the cross-quantilogram method indicate that the information transmission from climate and geopolitical risks to shipping markets occurs mainly in the short term. An abnormally high climate risk has a significant and positive impact on most shipping markets under normal market conditions. Greater geopolitical risk has a significant positive impact on the front shipping market but a negative impact on middle shipping markets. These insights provide important implications for policymakers, shipping company managers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Ruirui, 2026. "How do climate risk and geopolitical risk impact shipping markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:81:y:2026:i:c:s0275531925004465
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103190
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