IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipas1544612325010335.html

The causal dynamics between geopolitical risks, climate risks, and Global ESG Equity & Green Bond Balanced Index

Author

Listed:
  • Shen, Yijuan
  • Cui, Xiaoning
  • Zhu, Yating
  • Cai, Yifei

Abstract

This study applies a quantile Granger causality test to examine the causal nexus between geopolitical risks, climate risks, and global ESG equity and green bond index. Results reveal asymmetric, state-dependent effects. The findings highlight the importance of nonlinear risk assessment in sustainable finance and policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Yijuan & Cui, Xiaoning & Zhu, Yating & Cai, Yifei, 2025. "The causal dynamics between geopolitical risks, climate risks, and Global ESG Equity & Green Bond Balanced Index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pa:s1544612325010335
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325010335
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.107775?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Hedging climate risks with green assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Giovanna Bua & Daniel Kapp & Federico Ramella & Lavinia Rognone, 2024. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(17), pages 2076-2110, November.
    4. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    5. Tian, Hao & Long, Shaobo & Li, Zixuan, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of climate policy uncertainty, infectious diseases-related uncertainty, crude oil volatility, and geopolitical risks on green bond prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    7. Wang, Chih-Wei & Wu, Yu-Ching & Hsieh, Hsin-Yi & Huang, Po-Hsiang & Lin, Meng-Chieh, 2022. "Does green bond issuance have an impact on climate risk concerns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Dong, Xiyong & Xiong, Youlin & Nie, Siyue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2023. "Can bonds hedge stock market risks? Green bonds vs conventional bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Liu, Fangying & Qin, Chuan & Qin, Meng & Stefea, Petru & Norena-Chavez, Diego, 2024. "Geopolitical risk: An opportunity or a threat to the green bond market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Ruirui, 2026. "How do climate risk and geopolitical risk impact shipping markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical turmoil and investor green preference: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Kumari, Minu & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2025. "Unveiling the asymmetry through NARDL approach: Do geopolitical risks impact green bonds?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Aslam, Adnan & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and bond market dynamics: Assessing the impact of threats and realized events," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Cai, Yifei & Shen, Yijuan & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2025. "Financial conditions and Sino-US tensions: A Granger causality analysis of diverging financial condition indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Bouri, Elie & Gök, Remzi & Gemi̇ci̇, Eray & Kara, Erkan, 2024. "Do geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil implied volatility drive assets across quantiles and time-horizons?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 137-154.
    8. Liu, Liping & Lü, Zheng & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2025. "Impact of policy uncertainty on stock market volatility in the China’s low-carbon economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Zhang, Qi & Wang, Ling & Sun, Xiaoxuan & Lin, Ning, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and offshore corporate bond issuance in local currency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
    11. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. Sheenan, Lisa, 2023. "Green bonds, conventional bonds and geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    13. Abdullah, Mohammad & Adeabah, David & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan, 2025. "Does climate risk drive digital asset returns?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 666(C).
    14. Dong, Xiaotian & Wang, Kai-Hua & Tao, Ran & Sorana, Vătavu & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia, 2024. "Is there a relationship between climate policy uncertainty and green finance? Evidence from bootstrap rolling window test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 277-289.
    15. Lin, Xudong & Meng, Yiqun & Zhu, Hao, 2024. "Exploring hedging potentials of green bonds against oil price shocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Wang, Fanyi & Ma, Wanying & Mirza, Nawazish & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2023. "Green financing, financial uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and oil prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Ha, Le Thanh, 2025. "From wars to dynamic waves: Scrutinizing connectedness between geopolitical risk index, green and non-green crypto volatility by quantile spillovers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 679(C).
    18. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Ahad, Muhammad & Imran, Zulfiqar Ali & Shahzad, Khurram, 2024. "Safe haven between European ESG and energy sector under Russian-Ukraine war: Role of sustainable investments for portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Huang, Shupei & Wang, Xinya & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "How unexpected geopolitical risk affect the nonlinear spillover among energy and metal markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pa:s1544612325010335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.