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A new approach to forecasting Islamic and conventional oil and gas stock prices

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  • Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi
  • Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde
  • Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi
  • Oliyide, Johnson Ayobami
  • Rajab, Sahel

Abstract

In order to make more informed investment decisions, it becomes increasingly critical to forecast stock prices. Given the abnormality of financial markets, predicting the stock market with high accuracy is challenging, necessitating the selection of a reliable method. This paper aims to predict oil and gas stocks in both Islamic and conventional markets before and during COVID-19 using a model based on recurrent long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The study employs an LSTM network combined with maximum overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) to predict the Islamic oil and gas stocks (IOG) index as well as the conventional oil and gas stocks (COG) index. Data spanning from 2018.06.27 to 2021.11.23 is divided into two periods: pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19. Prediction accuracy is assessed using root mean square error (RMSE). The study reveals that the network forecasts both indices better during the crisis period than in normal conditions. Additionally, the model generates more accurate forecasts of COG than IOG in both periods across most scales. LSTM predicts COG more accurately at the long-term horizon of the pre-crisis period, whereas it only forecasts IOC at a medium-term horizon in the same market state. In the COVID-19 era, LSTM performs best at predicting both stock markets in the medium-term, but the longest-term forecast is the least accurate. These findings have important implications for investors trading in oil and gas stocks across different market conditions, as well as policymakers regulating oil and gas-related markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Oliyide, Johnson Ayobami & Rajab, Sahel, 2024. "A new approach to forecasting Islamic and conventional oil and gas stock prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pa:s1059056024005057
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103513
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil and gas stocks; Islamic market; Forecast; LSTM; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

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