IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v48y2019i912.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reap what you sow: Agricultural technology, urbanization and structural change

Author

Listed:
  • McGowan, Danny
  • Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis

Abstract

This paper studies how productivity-enhancing agricultural technology affects urbanization by provoking structural change. We investigate these issues using a natural experiment in the United States. The results show that technologies which improve crop productivity lead to a less urbanized economy as economic activity relocates from manufacturing and services towards agriculture. The effects are highly persistent and are driven by the technology increasing agricultural labor demand. Our findings highlight the potentially unintended, disruptive force of innovative technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • McGowan, Danny & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2019. "Reap what you sow: Agricultural technology, urbanization and structural change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:48:y:2019:i:9:12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2019.05.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004873331930109X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.respol.2019.05.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    2. Weber, K. Matthias & Rohracher, Harald, 2012. "Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1037-1047.
    3. Boothby, Daniel & Dufour, Anik & Tang, Jianmin, 2010. "Technology adoption, training and productivity performance," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 650-661, June.
    4. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    5. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
    6. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016. "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 35-70, March.
    7. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 2004. "Agricultural Productivity Growth, Rural Economic Diversity, and Economic Reforms: India, 1970-2000," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(3), pages 509-542, April.
    8. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1992. "Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 317-334, December.
    9. Leah Platt Boustan & Price V. Fishback & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets:American Cities during the Great Depression," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 719-746, October.
    10. Jacob R. Holm & Christian R. Østergaard, 2020. "Regional Employment Growth, Shocks and Regional Industrial Resilience: A Quantitative Analysis of the Danish ICT Sector," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 95-112, July.
    11. Nicole M. Mason & Melinda Smale, 2013. "Impacts of subsidized hybrid seed on indicators of economic well-being among smallholder maize growers in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(6), pages 659-670, November.
    12. Dolata, Ulrich, 2009. "Technological innovations and sectoral change: Transformative capacity, adaptability, patterns of change: An analytical framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1066-1076, July.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & Joshua Linn, 2004. "Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1049-1090.
    14. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    15. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    16. Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch & Stephen J. Redding, 2012. "Urbanization and Structural Transformation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 535-586.
    17. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    18. Wright, Gavin, 1979. "Cheap Labor and Southern Textiles before 1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 655-680, September.
    19. Ann Bartel & Casey Ichniowski & Kathryn Shaw, 2007. "How Does Information Technology Affect Productivity? Plant-Level Comparisons of Product Innovation, Process Improvement, and Worker Skills," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1721-1758.
    20. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    21. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2003. "Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 793-808, November.
    22. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2011. "Innovation and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 17178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Fagerberg, Jan & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "Technology-gaps, innovation-diffusion and transformation: an evolutionary interpretation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1291-1304, December.
    24. Jonathan Skinner & Douglas Staiger, 2007. "Technology Adoption from Hybrid Corn to Beta-Blockers," NBER Chapters, in: Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, pages 545-570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-1278, December.
    26. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Richard Hornbeck & Pinar Keskin, 2014. "The Historically Evolving Impact of the Ogallala Aquifer: Agricultural Adaptation to Groundwater and Drought," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 190-219, January.
    28. Richard Hornbeck & Pinar Keskin, 2015. "Does Agriculture Generate Local Economic Spillovers? Short-Run and Long-Run Evidence from the Ogallala Aquifer," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 192-213, May.
    29. Bee Yan Aw & Mark J. Roberts & Daniel Yi Xu, 2008. "R&D Investments, Exporting, and the Evolution of Firm Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 451-456, May.
    30. Francesco Quatraro, 2009. "Innovation, structural change and productivity growth: evidence from Italian regions, 1980--2003," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(5), pages 1001-1022, September.
    31. Melinda Smale & John Olwande, 2014. "Demand for maize hybrids and hybrid change on smallholder farms in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 409-420, July.
    32. Coad, Alex & Segarra, Agustí & Teruel, Mercedes, 2016. "Innovation and firm growth: Does firm age play a role?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 387-400.
    33. Piotr Danisewicz & Danny McGowan & Enrico Onali & Klaus Schaeck, 2018. "Debt Priority Structure, Market Discipline, and Bank Conduct," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4493-4555.
    34. Criscuolo, Paola & Nicolaou, Nicos & Salter, Ammon, 2012. "The elixir (or burden) of youth? Exploring differences in innovation between start-ups and established firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 319-333.
    35. Smale, Melinda & Mason, Nicole M., 2013. "Hybrid Seed, Income, and Inequality among Smallholder Maize Farmers in Zambia," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 146929, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    36. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    37. Dixon, Robert J, 1980. "Hybrid Corn Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1451-1461, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue Zhang & Yaqiang Dai & Yuanyuan Chen & Xinli Ke, 2022. "Coupling Coordination Development of New-Type Urbanization and Cultivated Land Low-Carbon Utilization in the Yangtze River Delta, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Ibrahim Mohamed Ali Ali, 2023. "Income inequality, economic growth, and structural changes in Egypt: new insights from quantile cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 379-407, February.
    3. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Fanjul, Ana P. & Herrera, Liliana & Munoz-Doyague, Maria F., 2023. "Fostering rural entrepreneurship: An ex-post analysis for Spanish municipalities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Danny McGowan & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2015. "Reap What You Sow: Agricultural Productivity, Structural Change and Urbanization," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2015019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    2. Mario F Carillo, 2021. "Agricultural Policy and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Mussolini's Battle for Grain," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 566-597.
    3. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Mondal, Debasis, 2021. "Productivity, relative sectoral prices, and total factor productivity: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Santangelo, G., 2019. "Firms and Farms: The Local Effects of Farm Income on Firms’ Demand," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1924, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    7. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    8. Sheng, Yu & Zhao, Yuhan & Zhang, Qian & Dong, Wanlu & Huang, Jikun, 2022. "Boosting rural labor off-farm employment through urban expansion in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Samuel Marden, 2016. "The agricultural roots of industrial development: ‘forward linkages’ in reform era China," Working Paper Series 09116, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Blakeslee, David & Dar, Aaditya & Fishman, Ram & Malik, Samreen & Pellegrina, Heitor S. & Bagavathinathan, Karan Singh, 2023. "Irrigation and the spatial pattern of local economic development in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Yuan Tian & Junjie Xia & Rudai Yang, 2020. "Trade-induced urbanization and the making of modern agriculture," Discussion Papers 2020-16, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    12. Colmer, Jonathan, 2018. "Weather, labor reallocation and industrial production: evidence from India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88695, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Yi Li, 2020. "Internet Development and Structural Transformation: Evidence from China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8.
    14. Richard Hornbeck & Pinar Keskin, 2015. "Does Agriculture Generate Local Economic Spillovers? Short-Run and Long-Run Evidence from the Ogallala Aquifer," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 192-213, May.
    15. Martin Fiszbein, 2017. "Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change and Long-run Development: Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Douglas Gollin & Casper Worm Hansen & Asger Mose Wingender, 2021. "Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2344-2384.
    17. Emerick, Kyle, 2018. "Agricultural productivity and the sectoral reallocation of labor in rural India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 488-503.
    18. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2019. "Winning the oil lottery: the impact of natural resource extraction on growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-115, March.
    19. Samuel Marden, 2016. "The agricultural roots of industrial development: ‘forward linkages’ in reform era China," Working Paper Series 9116, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    20. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J. Redding & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2022. "Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution," CEP Discussion Papers dp1884, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural technology; Productivity; Urbanization; Structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:48:y:2019:i:9:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.