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What drives trade policy reform?

Author

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  • Estefania-Flores, Julia
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.
  • Steinberg, Federico

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic and political determinants of non-tariff barriers to international trade based on a new index of such restrictions with broad country and time coverage. We employ a structured empirical approach that integrates multiple methodologies to identify which factors are the most robust correlates of trade reform (defined as meaningful changes in non-tariff barriers). We find that structural factors, both macroeconomic (especially inflation and export concentration) and political (especially democracy, corruption, political polarization and populism) emerge as robust correlates of changes in trade policy. Among these, political and institutional variables explain the largest share of nontariff barrier policy variation.

Suggested Citation

  • Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Steinberg, Federico, 2025. "What drives trade policy reform?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 805-829.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:47:y:2025:i:4:p:805-829
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.014
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • P41 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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