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Fire-sale FDI or business as usual?

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  • Alquist, Ron
  • Mukherjee, Rahul
  • Tesar, Linda

Abstract

Motivated by a set of stylized facts, we develop a model of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) to study foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets. We compare acquisitions undertaken during financial crises – so called fire-sale FDI – with acquisitions made during non-crisis periods to examine whether the outcomes differ in the ways predicted by the model. Foreign acquisitions are driven by two sources of value creation. First, acquisitions by a foreign firm relax the target's credit constraint (i.e., a liquidity motive). Second, acquisitions exploit operational synergies between the target and the acquirer (i.e., a synergistic motive). During crises credit conditions tighten in the target economy and the liquidity motive dominates. The model predicts that during crisis relative to non-crisis periods, (1) the likelihood of foreign acquisitions is higher; (2) the proportion of foreign acquisitions in the same industry is lower; (3) the average size of ownership stakes is lower; and (4) the duration of acquisitions is lower (i.e., acquisition stakes are more likely to be flipped). We find support for (1) but not for the other three predictions. The results thus suggest that foreign acquisitions in emerging markets do not differ in these important ways between crisis and normal periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alquist, Ron & Mukherjee, Rahul & Tesar, Linda, 2016. "Fire-sale FDI or business as usual?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 93-113.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:98:y:2016:i:c:p:93-113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.09.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Rahul Mukherjee & Linda L. Tesar & Ron Alquist, 2014. "Liquidity-Driven FDI," IHEID Working Papers 17-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 11 Dec 2014.
    2. repec:eee:jjieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:69-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Weitzel, Utz & Kling, Gerhard & Gerritsen, Dirk, 2014. "Testing the fire-sale FDI hypothesis for the European financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 211-234.
    4. Alquist, Ron & Berman, Nicolas & Mukherjee, Rahul & Tesar, Linda L., 2019. "Financial constraints, institutions, and foreign ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 63-83.
    5. repec:eee:glofin:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Xie, En & Reddy, K.S. & Liang, Jie, 2017. "Country-specific determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions: A comprehensive review and future research directions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 127-183.
    7. repec:eee:jebusi:v:95:y:2018:i:c:p:87-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yılmaz Akyüz, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment, Investment Agreements, and Economic Development: Myths and Realities," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-47, January.
    9. Rahul Mukherjee & Christian Proebsting, 2015. "Survival of the Fittest: Corporate Control and the Cleansing Effect of Financial Crises," IHEID Working Papers 20-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 01 Oct 2015.
    10. Christopher L. House & Linda L. Tesar, 2015. "Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Options," Working Papers 652, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    11. repec:eee:riibaf:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:471-489 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ang, James & Knill, April & Mauck, Nathan, 2014. "Investment Opportunity Sets of Real Assets: An International Empirical Study Based on Ownership Types," MPRA Paper 53359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Rahul Mukherjee & Christian Proebsting, 2017. "Acquirers and Financial Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Emerging Markets," IHEID Working Papers 21-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2015. "FDI, debt and capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 29-50.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fire sales; Foreign direct investment; Cross-border mergers and acquisitions; Financial crises; Flipping;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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