IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v85y2011i2p163-173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bergin, Paul R.
  • Feenstra, Robert C.
  • Hanson, Gordon H.

Abstract

Existing models of offshoring are not equipped to explain how global production sharing affects the volatility of economic activity. This paper develops a trade model that can account for why offshoring industries in low wage countries such as Mexico experience fluctuations in employment that are twice as large as in high wage countries such as the United States. We argue that a key to explaining this outcome is that the extensive margin of offshoring responds endogenously to shocks in demand and transmits those shocks across borders in an amplified manner. Empirical evidence supports the claim that the extensive margin of offshoring is an active margin of adjustment, and quantitative simulation experiments show that the degree of movement of this margin in the data is sufficient to explain relative employment volatility in Mexico and the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C. & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Volatility due to offshoring: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 163-173.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:2:p:163-173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199611000870
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Comin & Norman Loayza & Farooq Pasha & Luis Serven, 2014. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 209-245, October.
    2. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
    3. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2017. "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico’s Maquiladora Industry," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 2, pages 31-44 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2002. "International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 273-300, February.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," NBER Chapters,in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 163-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "The Impact of Outsourcing and High-Technology Capital on Wages: Estimates For the United States, 1979–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 907-940.
    7. Amiti, Mary & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Service Offshoring, Productivity and Employment: Evidence from the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 5475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Juan C. Botero & Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "The Regulation of Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1339-1382.
    9. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    10. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    11. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    12. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
    13. Eli Bekman & John Bound & Stephen Machin, 1998. "Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1245-1279.
    14. Pol Antras & Elhanan Helpman, 2004. "Global Sourcing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 552-580, June.
    15. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2004. "Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 836-856, September.
    16. Krugman, Paul R., 2000. "Technology, trade and factor prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 51-71, February.
    17. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    18. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2006. "Service Offshoring and Productivity: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 11926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    2. Hummels, David & Munch, Jakob R. & Xiang, Chong, 2016. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 9741, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kocenda, 2012. "Incomplete specialization and offshoring across Europe," FIW Working Paper series 091, FIW.
    4. Neil Foster-McGregor & Johannes Pöschl, 2015. "Offshoring, Inshoring and Labor Market Volatility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 145-163, June.
    5. Hu, Cui & Tan, Yong, 2017. "Learning to Import From Neighbors," MPRA Paper 78108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adina Ardelean & Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Laura Puzzello, 2017. "Industry Volatility and International Trade," Studies in Economics 1709, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2097-2124 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Drauz, Ralf, 2014. "Re-insourcing as a manufacturing-strategic option during a crisis—Cases from the automobile industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 346-353.
    9. Tan, Yong, 2016. "The Impact of Demand Shocks on Firm-Level Offshoring Behavior: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 73734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gu, Grace Weishi, 2015. "A Tale of Two Countries: Sovereign Default, Exchange Rate, and Trade," MPRA Paper 61900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Dai, Mi & Maitra, Madhura & Yu, Miaojie, 2016. "Unexceptional exporter performance in China? The role of processing trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 177-189.
    12. repec:eee:proeco:v:199:y:2018:i:c:p:199-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tan, Yong & Shao, Yuchen, 2016. "The Impact of Demand Shocks on Firm-Level Offshoring Behavior: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 68728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ma, Alyson C. & Van Assche, Ari, 2014. "Vertical Specialization, Tariff Shirking, and Trade," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 390, Asian Development Bank.
    15. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00910194 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ben Salha, Ousama, 2013. "Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 572-597.
    17. Archanun Kohpaiboon & Juthatip Jongwanich, . "Global Production Sharing and Wage Premium: Evidence from Thai Manufacturing," Chapters, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    18. Selover, David D. & Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2015. "Examining industrial interdependence between Japan and South Korea: A FAVAR approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 67-87.
    19. Fernandes, Ana P. & Tang, Heiwai, 2012. "Determinants of vertical integration in export processing: Theory and evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 396-414.
    20. Sebastian Benz & Wilhelm Kohler & Erdal Yalcin, 2016. "Offshoring and Volatility of Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 5970, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Offshoring; Outsourcing; Employment; Volatility; Maquiladoras;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:2:p:163-173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.