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Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption

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  • Ince, Peter J.
  • Kramp, Andrew D.
  • Skog, Kenneth E.
  • Yoo, Do-il
  • Sample, V. Alaric

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in domestic wood energy consumption under hypothetical future U.S. wood biomass energy policy scenarios. The U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM) was created to enhance the modeling of the U.S. forest sector within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM), providing a more detailed representation of U.S. regional timber supply and wood residue markets. Scenarios were analyzed with USFPM/GFPM ranging from a baseline 48% increase to a 173% increase in annual U.S. consumption of wood for energy from 2006 to 2030, while consumption of fuelwood in other countries was assumed to increase by around 65% in aggregate. Results indicate that expansion in wood energy consumption across the range of scenarios may have little impact on U.S. forest sector markets because most of the expansion can be supplied by logging residues that are presently not being utilized and also mill residues that will increase in supply with projected expansion in wood product output in the decades ahead. However, analysis also suggests that forest sector markets could be disrupted by expansion in wood energy if much higher levels of wood energy consumption occur, or if projected recovery in housing demand and wood product output does not occur, or if more restrictive constraints or higher costs are imposed on wood residue utilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Ince, Peter J. & Kramp, Andrew D. & Skog, Kenneth E. & Yoo, Do-il & Sample, V. Alaric, 2011. "Modeling future U.S. forest sector market and trade impacts of expansion in wood energy consumption," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 142-156, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:142-156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caurla, Sylvain & Delacote, Philippe & Lecocq, Franck & Barkaoui, Ahmed, 2013. "Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 338-347.
    2. Craig M.T. Johnston & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2014. "Carbon Neutrality of Hardwood and Softwood Biomass: Issues of Temporal Preference," Working Papers 2014-06, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    3. Jinggang Guo & Craig M.T. Johnston, 2020. "Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute," Staff Working Papers 20-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Johnston, Craig M.T. & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2016. "Global trade impacts of increasing Europe's bioenergy demand," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 27-44.
    5. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    6. Xian, Hui & Colson, Gregory & Karali, Berna & Wetzstein, Michael, 2017. "Do nonrenewable-energy prices affect renewable-energy volatility? The case of wood pellets," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 42-48.
    7. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    8. Daigneault, Adam & Johnston, Craig & Korosuo, Anu & Baker, Justin S. & Forsell, Nicklas & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Abt, Robert C., 2019. "Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(1-2), pages 7-45, August.
    9. Galik, Christopher S. & Abt, Robert C. & Latta, Gregory & Vegh, Tibor, 2015. "The environmental and economic effects of regional bioenergy policy in the southeastern U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 335-346.
    10. Latta, Gregory S. & Baker, Justin S. & Beach, Robert H. & Rose, Steven K. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2013. "A multi-sector intertemporal optimization approach to assess the GHG implications of U.S. forest and agricultural biomass electricity expansion," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 361-383.
    11. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    12. G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2016. "California Dreaming: The Economics of Renewable Energy," Working Papers 2016-05, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    13. Lauri, Pekka & Kallio, A. Maarit I. & Schneider, Uwe A., 2012. "Price of CO2 emissions and use of wood in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 123-131.
    14. Nepal, Prakash & Ince, Peter J. & Skog, Kenneth E. & Chang, Sun J., 2013. "Forest carbon benefits, costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 286-306.
    15. Sergent, Arnaud, 2014. "Sector-based political analysis of energy transition: Green shift in the forest policy regime in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 491-500.
    16. Guo, Jinggang & Gong, Peichen, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of rising fuelwood demand on Swedish forest sector: An intertemporal optimization approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 91-98.
    17. Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 148929, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    18. Matzenberger, Julian & Kranzl, Lukas & Tromborg, Eric & Junginger, Martin & Daioglou, Vassilis & Sheng Goh, Chun & Keramidas, Kimon, 2015. "Future perspectives of international bioenergy trade," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 926-941.
    19. Johnston, Craig M.T. & Cornelis van Kooten, G., 2015. "Back to the past: Burning wood to save the globe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 185-193.
    20. Wang, Weiwei & Khanna, Madhu & Dwivedi, Puneet, 2013. "Optimal Mix of Feedstock for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use and GHG Emissions," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150736, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. White, Eric M. & Latta, Greg & Alig, Ralph J. & Skog, Kenneth E. & Adams, Darius M., 2013. "Biomass production from the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors in support of a renewable electricity standard," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-74.

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