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Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Daigneault, Adam
  • Johnston, Craig
  • Korosuo, Anu
  • Baker, Justin S.
  • Forsell, Nicklas
  • Prestemon, Jeffrey P.
  • Abt, Robert C.

Abstract

This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.

Suggested Citation

  • Daigneault, Adam & Johnston, Craig & Korosuo, Anu & Baker, Justin S. & Forsell, Nicklas & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Abt, Robert C., 2019. "Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(1-2), pages 7-45, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:now:jnljfe:112.00000441
    DOI: 10.1561/112.00000441
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    1. Bradley J. Cardinale & J. Emmett Duffy & Andrew Gonzalez & David U. Hooper & Charles Perrings & Patrick Venail & Anita Narwani & Georgina M. Mace & David Tilman & David A. Wardle & Ann P. Kinzig & Gre, 2012. "Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity," Nature, Nature, vol. 486(7401), pages 59-67, June.
    2. Giacomo Grassi & Jo House & Frank Dentener & Sandro Federici & Michel den Elzen & Jim Penman, 2017. "The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 220-226, March.
    3. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21 st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daigneault, Adam & Baker, Justin S. & Guo, Jinggang & Lauri, Pekka & Favero, Alice & Forsell, Nicklas & Johnston, Craig & Ohrel, Sara & Sohngen, Brent, 2021. "How the Future of the Global Forest Sink Depends on Timber Demand, Forest Management, and Carbon Prices," CEnREP Working Papers 340059, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Baker, Justin S. & Rossi, David & Abt, Robert, 2022. "Quantifying Additionality Thresholds for Forest Carbon Offsets," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322510, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    4. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Zhao, Jianheng & Daigneault, Adam & Weiskittel, Aaron & Wei, Xinyuan, 2023. "Climate and socioeconomic impacts on Maine's forests under alternative future pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Michael Roos & Matthias Reccius, 2024. "Narratives in economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 303-341, April.
    7. Daigneault, Adam & Favero, Alice, 2021. "Global forest management, carbon sequestration and bioenergy supply under alternative shared socioeconomic pathways," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Daigneault, Adam J. & Baker, Justin S. & Favero, Alice, 2020. "A forest model inter-comparison project (For-MIP) to assess the future of forests under climate, policy and technological stressors," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304585, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Karner, Katrin & Mitter, Hermine & Sinabell, Franz & Schönhart, Martin, 2024. "Participatory development of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Austria’s agriculture and food systems," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use policy; forest carbon; bioenergy; consumption; technological; change; modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q27 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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