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Effects of inflation and macroprudential policies on bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies

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  • Qin, Xueming
  • Peng, Gangdong
  • Zhao, Mengxiang

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between macroprudential policies, inflation, and bank risk in emerging economies. Several significant findings emerge based on panel data from approximately 1400 commercial banks across 32 emerging economies over the period 2000–2018. Firstly, a positive correlation is observed between inflation rates and bank risk, suggesting that inflation increases financial instability. Contrary to their intended purpose, stringent macroprudential policies actually intensify bank risk during periods of high inflation rather than stabilizing economies. Secondly, the analysis indicates that macroprudential tools designed to moderate credit cycles significantly enhance the risk banks face from inflation. Varied impacts are observed among different macroprudential instruments: capital-related, reserve requirement, and foreign exchange-related tools counterproductively heighten bank risk during periods of high inflation. Conversely, asset-based and liquidity-focused tools effectively reduce bank risk under similar inflationary conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Xueming & Peng, Gangdong & Zhao, Mengxiang, 2025. "Effects of inflation and macroprudential policies on bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1057521924007737
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103841
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policies; Inflation; Bank risk; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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