System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025)
Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is the question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-López et al., submitted for publication). The main goal of this paper is to analyze whether the EKC hypothesis holds within the period 1980–2025 under four different scenarios. This paper uses co-integration techniques (Stock and Watson, 2010) to test the existence of the EKC hypothesis in Ecuador in the medium term using Jaunky's (2011) specification. Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfilment of this hypothesis in the medium term. Results do not support the fulfilment of the EKC, nevertheless, our estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future if economic growth is combined with an increase in the use of renewable energies, an improvement of the productive sectoral structure, and the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009.
"An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1156-1164, March.
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey," MPRA Paper 11457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1992. "Testing for Stationarity in the Components Representation of a Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 586-591, December.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B & Schmidt, P., 1991. "Testing for Stationarity in the Components Representation of a Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 543-544, December.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Stern, David I., 2004. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1419-1439, August.
- David I. Stern, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
- repec:ilo:ilowps:292778 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chontanawat, Jaruwan & Hunt, Lester C. & Pierse, Richard, 2008. "Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 209-220.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2148-2156.
- Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2011. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: the environmental Kuznets curve in Spain, 1857-2007," Working Papers 1106, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
- Lise, Wietze, 2006. "Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1841-1852, September.
- Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
- Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 4634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galeotti, Marzio & Lanza, Alessandro & Pauli, Francesco, 2006. "Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A robustness exercise," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 152-163, April.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 661-666, January.
- Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for Spain? Fresh evidence from old data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2696-2703.
- Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
- Dinda, Soumyananda, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 431-455, August.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2005. "Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 415-427, May.
- Panayotou T., 1993. "Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development," ILO Working Papers 992927783402676, International Labour Organization.
- Shafik, Nemat & Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, 1992. "Economic growth and environmental quality : time series and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 904, The World Bank.
- Fosten, Jack & Morley, Bruce & Taylor, Tim, 2012. "Dynamic misspecification in the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from CO2 and SO2 emissions in the United Kingdom," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 25-33.
- Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
- Junyi Shen & Yoshizo Hashimoto, 2004. "Environmental Kuznets Curve on Country Level: Evidence from China," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 04-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)