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System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025)


  • Robalino-López, Andrés
  • García-Ramos, José-Enrique
  • Golpe, Antonio A.
  • Mena-Nieto, Ángel


Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is the question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-López et al., submitted for publication). The main goal of this paper is to analyze whether the EKC hypothesis holds within the period 1980–2025 under four different scenarios. This paper uses co-integration techniques (Stock and Watson, 2010) to test the existence of the EKC hypothesis in Ecuador in the medium term using Jaunky's (2011) specification. Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfilment of this hypothesis in the medium term. Results do not support the fulfilment of the EKC, nevertheless, our estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future if economic growth is combined with an increase in the use of renewable energies, an improvement of the productive sectoral structure, and the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology.

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  • Robalino-López, Andrés & García-Ramos, José-Enrique & Golpe, Antonio A. & Mena-Nieto, Ángel, 2014. "System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 923-931.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:923-931 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.003

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez, Miguel & Pena-Boquete, Yolanda & Pardo-Fernández, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Revisiting Environmental Kuznets Curves through the energy price lens," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 32-41.
    2. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid, 2016. "Revisiting the concept of environmental Kuznets curve in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income: Empirical evidence from Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 274-284.
    3. repec:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:170-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shah, Syed Hasanat & Sato, João Ricardo, 2016. "Time-varying analysis of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth nexus: Statistical experience in next 11 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 33-48.
    5. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid, 2016. "Does the need for economic growth influence energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Nigeria? Evidence from the innovation accounting test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1209-1225.
    6. Pablo-Romero, María del P. & De Jesús, Josué, 2016. "Economic growth and energy consumption: The Energy-Environmental Kuznets Curve for Latin America and the Caribbean," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1343-1350.
    7. repec:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:4170-4178 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robalino-López, Andrés & Mena-Nieto, Ángel & García-Ramos, José-Enrique & Golpe, Antonio A., 2015. "Studying the relationship between economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the environmental Kuznets curve in Venezuela (1980–2025)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 602-614.
    9. Maralgua Och, 2017. "Empirical Investigation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Nitrous Oxide Emissions for Mongolia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 117-128.
    10. repec:eee:rensus:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:138-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:ecolec:v:138:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS

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    CO2 emissions; System dynamics; Environmental Kuznets curve; Ecuador;

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