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Coevolution of policy, market and technical price risks in the EU ETS

  • Blyth, William
  • Bunn, Derek
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    Within the EU, there have been calls for governments to provide greater certainty over carbon prices, even though it is evident that their price risk is not entirely due to policy uncertainty. We develop a stochastic simulation model of price formation in the EU ETS to analyse the coevolution of policy, market and technology risks under different initiatives. The current situation of a weak (20%) overall abatement target motivates various technology-support interventions, elevating policy uncertainty as the major source of carbon price risk. In contrast, taking a firm decision to move to a more stringent 30% cap would leave the EU-ETS price formation driven much more by market forces than by policy risks. This leads to considerations of how much risk mitigation by governments would be appropriate, and how much should be taken as business risk by the market participants.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511003442
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 8 (August)
    Pages: 4578-4593

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:8:p:4578-4593
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    1. Hepburn, C. & Grubb, M. & Neuhoff, K. & Matthes , F. & Tse, M., 2006. "Auctioning of EU ETS Phase II allowances: how and why?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0644, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Marc Chesney & Luca Taschini, 2008. "The Endogenous Price Dynamics of the Emission Allowances: An Application to CO2 Option Pricing," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-01, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jan 2008.
    3. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "The long-run evolution of energy prices," Working papers WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    4. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
    5. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    6. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December.
    7. Pizer, William A., 2002. "Combining price and quantity controls to mitigate global climate change," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 409-434, September.
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