IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijgeni/v35y2011i2-3-4p145-157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the 'value at risk' of EUA futures prices based on the extreme value theory

Author

Listed:
  • Zhi-Fu Mi
  • Yue-Jun Zhang

Abstract

This paper employs the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to measure the 'Value at Risk' (VaR) of EUA futures prices. The results show that during the sample period: first, the EVT approach can be used to reliably measure the extreme risk of carbon futures markets of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, both for Phase I and Phase II. Second, the downside extreme risk of carbon futures market outweighs the upside risk, with evident asymmetric features. Moreover, the average VaR of carbon futures contract DEC10 proves much less than that of contract DEC07 during the sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-Fu Mi & Yue-Jun Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the 'value at risk' of EUA futures prices based on the extreme value theory," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 145-157.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:35:y:2011:i:2/3/4:p:145-157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=45027
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    2. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    3. Nicholas Linacre & Alexandre Kossoy & Philippe Ambrosi, "undated". "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13400, The World Bank.
    4. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek & Kettunen, Janne & Wilson, Tom, 2009. "Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5192-5207, December.
    5. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1126, February.
    6. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Blyth, William & Bunn, Derek, 2011. "Coevolution of policy, market and technical price risks in the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4578-4593, August.
    8. Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
    9. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
    10. Manfred Gilli & Evis këllezi, 2006. "An Application of Extreme Value Theory for Measuring Financial Risk," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 207-228, May.
    11. Fernandez, Viviana, 2005. "Risk management under extreme events," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 113-148.
    12. Emilic Alberola & Julien Chevallier & Benoit Cheze, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 93-126.
    13. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Zou, Le-Le & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2011. "Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 590-598, March.
    14. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
    15. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
    16. Chevallier, Julien & Ielpo, Florian & Mercier, Ludovic, 2009. "Risk aversion and institutional information disclosure on the European carbon market: A case-study of the 2006 compliance event," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 15-28, January.
    17. Emilie Alberola & Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier, 2008. "The EU Emissions Trading Scheme : Disentangling the Effects of Industrial Production and CO2 Emissions on Carbon Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-12, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Paolella, Marc S. & Taschini, Luca, 2008. "An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2022-2032, October.
    20. repec:wbk:wboper:13399 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
    23. Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Are electricity risk premia affected by emission allowance prices? Evidence from the EEX, Nord Pool and Powernext," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2594-2604, July.
    24. McNeil, Alexander J., 1997. "Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 117-137, May.
    25. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4221 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Longin, Francois M., 2000. "From value at risk to stress testing: The extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1097-1130, July.
    27. Blanco, Mari­a Isabel & Rodrigues, Glória, 2008. "Can the future EU ETS support wind energy investments?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1509-1520, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
    2. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:315-327 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Modeling environmental policy with and without abatement substitution: A tradeoff between economics and environment?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 34-43.
    4. Cui, Qiang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Li, Ye, 2016. "Exploring the impacts of the EU ETS emission limits on airline performance via the Dynamic Environmental DEA approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 984-994.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU ETS; European Union Emissions Trading Scheme; EVT; extreme value theory; VaR; value at risk; carbon market; carbon trading; carbon emissions; CO2; carbon dioxide; carbon futures.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:35:y:2011:i:2/3/4:p:145-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmel O'Grady). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID==13 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.