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Statistical regularities of Carbon emission trading market: Evidence from European Union allowances

Author

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  • Zheng, Zeyu
  • Xiao, Rui
  • Shi, Haibo
  • Li, Guihong
  • Zhou, Xiaofeng

Abstract

As an emerging financial market, the trading value of carbon emission trading market has definitely increased. In recent years, the carbon emission allowances have already become a way of investment. They are bought and sold not only by carbon emitters but also by investors. In this paper, we analyzed the price fluctuations of the European Union allowances (EUA) futures in European Climate Exchange (ECX) market from 2007 to 2011. The symmetric and power-law probability density function of return time series was displayed. We found that there are only short-range correlations in price changes (return), while long-range correlations in the absolute of price changes (volatility). Further, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) approach was applied with focus on long-range autocorrelations and Hurst exponent. We observed long-range power-law autocorrelations in the volatility that quantify risk, and found that they decay much more slowly than the autocorrelation of return time series. Our analysis also showed that the significant cross correlations exist between return time series of EUA and many other returns. These cross correlations exist in a wide range of fields, including stock markets, energy concerned commodities futures, and financial futures. The significant cross-correlations between energy concerned futures and EUA indicate the physical relationship between carbon emission and energy production process. Additionally, the cross-correlations between financial futures and EUA indicate that the speculation behavior may become an important factor that can affect the price of EUA. Finally we modeled the long-range volatility time series of EUA with a particular version of the GARCH process, and the result also suggests long-range volatility autocorrelations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Zeyu & Xiao, Rui & Shi, Haibo & Li, Guihong & Zhou, Xiaofeng, 2015. "Statistical regularities of Carbon emission trading market: Evidence from European Union allowances," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 9-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:426:y:2015:i:c:p:9-15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.01.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Fang, Sheng & Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Qu, Ling, 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon emission allowance and stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 551-566.
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    7. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Babalos, Vassilios, 2018. "Modelling volatility persistence under stochasticity assumptions: evidence from common and alternative investments," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 158-163.
    9. Ahonen, Elena & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet & Larkin, Charles, 2022. "Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    10. Huang, Zhehao & Dong, Hao & Jia, Shuaishuai, 2022. "Equilibrium pricing for carbon emission in response to the target of carbon emission peaking," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
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