IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v347y2025i1d10.1007_s10479-023-05184-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Carbon emissions and sustainability in Covid-19’s waves: evidence from a two-state dynamic Markov-switching regression (MSR) model

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos N. Konstantakis

    (Hellenic Open University)

  • Panayotis G. Michaelides

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Panos Xidonas

    (ESSCA Ecole de Management)

  • Stavroula Yfanti

    (University of London, Queen Mary)

Abstract

Throughout the world, carbon emissions have decreased in an unprecedented way as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a rebound effect in carbon emissions is anticipated following the extraction of information related to the beliefs of investors. A suitable Markov switching model is used in this paper to adapt the safe haven financial methodology to an environmental sustainability perspective. Analytically, the aforementioned situation is modeled by estimating a two-state dynamic Markov-Switching Regression (MSR), with a state-dependent intercept term to capture the dynamics of the series, across unobserved regimes. In light of the results of the research and the robustness checks, investors are anticipating a rebound effect on the total quantity of carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panayotis G. Michaelides & Panos Xidonas & Stavroula Yfanti, 2025. "Carbon emissions and sustainability in Covid-19’s waves: evidence from a two-state dynamic Markov-switching regression (MSR) model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 347(1), pages 217-239, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:347:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05184-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05184-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-023-05184-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-023-05184-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    4. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    7. Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom & Soury, Manel, 2015. "Energy markets and CO2 emissions: Analysis by stochastic copula autoregressive model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 417-429.
    8. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy markets and CO2 emissions: Analysis by stochastic copula autoregressive model," Post-Print hal-01456125, HAL.
    10. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    11. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    12. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," Working Papers halshs-01148746, HAL.
    13. Martin, Ralf & Muûls, Mirabelle & de Preux, Laure B. & Wagner, Ulrich J., 2014. "On the empirical content of carbon leakage criteria in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 78-88.
    14. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1126, February.
    15. Oestreich, A. Marcel & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2015. "Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 294-308.
    16. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    17. Ma-Lin Song & Wei Zhang & Xiao-Ming Qiu, 2015. "Emissions trading system and supporting policies under an emissions reduction framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 228(1), pages 125-134, May.
    18. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    19. Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Xin & Kang, Wanglin, 2019. "Forecasting carbon prices in the Shenzhen market, China: The role of mixed-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 69-76.
    20. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    21. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    22. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Estimating dynamic common-correlated effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(3), pages 585-617, September.
    23. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 201-206.
    24. Matthew Hood & Farooq Malik, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52, April.
    25. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can energy commodity futures add to the value of carbon assets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 194-206.
    26. Wen, Xiaoqian & Cheng, Hua, 2018. "Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-90.
    27. Bao-jun Tang & Pi-qin Gong & Cheng Shen, 2017. "Factors of carbon price volatility in a comparative analysis of the EUA and sCER," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 157-168, August.
    28. Trinks, Arjan & Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2020. "An Efficiency Perspective on Carbon Emissions and Financial Performance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    29. Li, Jun & Zhang, Dayong & Su, Bin, 2019. "The Impact of Social Awareness and Lifestyles on Household Carbon Emissions in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 145-155.
    30. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-156.
    31. Zhao, Lili & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2020. "Interaction among China carbon emission trading markets: Nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    32. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Time-varying correlations in oil, gas and CO 2 prices: an application using BEKK, CCC and DCC-MGARCH models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4257-4274, November.
    33. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Sandrine Lardic, 2017. "EU Emissions Trading Scheme, competitiveness and carbon leakage: new evidence from cement and steel industries," Post-Print hal-02877954, HAL.
    35. Mark, Joy, 2011. "Gold and the US dollar: Hedge or haven?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 120-131, September.
    36. Corinne Le Quéré & Robert B. Jackson & Matthew W. Jones & Adam J. P. Smith & Sam Abernethy & Robbie M. Andrew & Anthony J. De-Gol & David R. Willis & Yuli Shan & Josep G. Canadell & Pierre Friedlingst, 2020. "Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 647-653, July.
    37. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market: Evidence from the Eurozone," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5787-5795, December.
    38. Ke Chen & Meng Wang, 2017. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge and a Safe Haven for China’s Stock Market?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-18, August.
    39. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    40. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Manel Soury, 2015. "Energy Markets and CO2 Emissions: Analysis by Stochastic Copula Autoregressive Model," AMSE Working Papers 1520, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    41. Boersen, Arieke & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "The relationship between European electricity markets and emission allowance futures prices in phase II of the EU (European Union) emission trading scheme," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 585-594.
    42. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6790 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    44. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2016. "New evidence on hedges and safe havens for Gulf stock markets using the wavelet-based quantile," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 155-183.
    45. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    46. Teixidó, Jordi & Verde, Stefano F. & Nicolli, Francesco, 2019. "The impact of the EU Emissions Trading System on low-carbon technological change: The empirical evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    47. Chenhao Fang & Tieju Ma, 2021. "Technology adoption with carbon emission trading mechanism: modeling with heterogeneous agents and uncertain carbon price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(2), pages 577-600, May.
    48. Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets: A vector autoregressive analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 215-226.
    49. Chkili, Walid, 2017. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven for Islamic stock market movements? A Markov switching approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 152-163.
    50. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    51. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    52. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Modeling EU allowances and oil market interdependence. Implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 471-480.
    53. Mohamed Amine Boutabba & Sandrine Lardic, 2017. "EU Emissions Trading Scheme, competitiveness and carbon leakage: new evidence from cement and steel industries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 47-61, August.
    54. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 320-328.
    55. Hood, Matthew & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52.
    56. Shaofu Du & Jun Qian & Tianzhuo Liu & Li Hu, 2020. "Emission allowance allocation mechanism design: a low-carbon operations perspective," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 247-280, August.
    57. Mohamed Arbi Madani & Zied Ftiti, 2022. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil and currency market movements? A revisit using multifractal approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 367-400, June.
    58. E. Allevi & G. Oggioni & R. Riccardi & M. Rocco, 2017. "An equilibrium model for the cement sector: EU-ETS analysis with power contracts," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 63-93, August.
    59. Nicolas Koch, 2014. "Dynamic linkages among carbon, energy and financial markets: a smooth transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(7), pages 715-729, March.
    60. Ching-Chun Wei & Ya-Ling Lin, 2016. "Carbon Future Price Return, Oil Future Price Return and Stock Index Future Price Return in the U.S," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 655-662.
    61. Dutta, Anupam & Das, Debojyoti & Jana, R.K. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "COVID-19 and oil market crash: Revisiting the safe haven property of gold and Bitcoin," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    62. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Man, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Sunpei & He, Yongda, 2024. "Dynamic risk spillover and hedging efficacy of China’s carbon-energy-finance markets: Economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment non-linear causal effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1397-1416.
    3. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Xidonas, Panos & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Gold and CoVid-19: Uncovering the safe haven hypothesis with dynamic MSR modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Noman, Ambreen, 2021. "The volatility connectedness of the EU carbon market with commodity and financial markets in time- and frequency-domain: The role of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Yi Yao & Lixin Tian & Guangxi Cao, 2022. "The Information Spillover among the Carbon Market, Energy Market, and Stock Market: A Case Study of China’s Pilot Carbon Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    6. Wen, Xiaoqian & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can energy commodity futures add to the value of carbon assets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 194-206.
    7. Gargallo, Pilar & Lample, Luis & Miguel, Jesús A. & Salvador, Manuel, 2024. "Sequential management of energy and low-carbon portfolios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Zhao, Lili & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2020. "Interaction among China carbon emission trading markets: Nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Gold as Safe Haven for G-7 Stocks and Bonds: A Revisit," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 885-912, December.
    10. Liu, Jianing & Man, Yuanyuan & Dong, Xiuliang, 2023. "Tail dependence and risk spillover effects between China's carbon market and energy markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 553-567.
    11. Wu, Ruirui & Qin, Zhongfeng & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2022. "A systemic analysis of dynamic frequency spillovers among carbon emissions trading (CET), fossil energy and sectoral stock markets: Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    12. Dai, Xingyu & Xiao, Ling & Wang, Qunwei & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2021. "Multiscale interplay of higher-order moments between the carbon and energy markets during Phase III of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Demiralay, Sercan & Gencer, Hatice Gaye & Bayraci, Selcuk, 2022. "Carbon credit futures as an emerging asset: Hedging, diversification and downside risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Safe haven properties of green, Islamic, and crypto assets and investor's proclivity towards treasury and gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Chung Baek & Thomas Jackman, 2021. "Safe-haven assets for U.S. equities during the 2020 COVID-19 bear market," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 331-335.
    16. Yang Liu & Xueqing Yang & Mei Wang, 2021. "Global Transmission of Returns among Financial, Traditional Energy, Renewable Energy and Carbon Markets: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-32, November.
    17. Pilar Gargallo & Luis Lample & Jesús A. Miguel & Manuel Salvador, 2021. "Co-Movements between Eu Ets and the Energy Markets: A Var-Dcc-Garch Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-36, July.
    18. Walid Mensi & Debasish Maitra & Refk Selmi & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Extreme dependencies and spillovers between gold and stock markets: evidence from MENA countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    19. Li, Xin & Li, Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Exploring the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on China's carbon emissions trading market price: Do different types of uncertainty matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    20. Talbi, Marwa & Bedoui, Rihab & de Peretti, Christian & Belkacem, Lotfi, 2021. "Is the role of precious metals as precious as they are? A vine copula and BiVaR approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environment; Sustainability; Pandemic; CO2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:347:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05184-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.