IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Asymmetric growth effect of capital flows: Evidence and quantitative theory

Listed author(s):
  • Eng, Yoke-Kee
  • Wong, Chin-Yoong

The empirical evidence of the causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth over the decades is largely indecisive. While the promised benefits to countries that open for capital inflows have not been realized, sudden and massive capital outflows often visibly wreak havoc on the economy. By using the recently developed asymmetric Granger causality test, we find overwhelming evidence across nine selected Asian countries in support of an asymmetric effect of capital flows on economic growth in the sense that cumulative capital inflows are irrelevant to growth, whereas cumulative capital outflows are destructive to growth. Based on a small open economy model expanded with heterogeneous investment goods and endogenous nonlinear credit constraints, we provide an economic intuition for the asymmetry that survives different levels of financial development. In particular, the arbitrage condition between heterogeneous investment goods sets a boundary over which massive and persistent capital inflows have no impact on long-run growth. On the other hand, endogenous nonlinear credit constraints trigger a debt deflation process, making large and persistent capital outflows destructive to growth.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362515000837
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 40 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 64-81

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:40:y:2016:i:1:p:64-81
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.08.003
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Landshuter Str. 4, 93047 Regensburg

Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
  2. Aghion, Philippe & Angeletos, George-Marios & Banerjee, Abhijit & Manova, Kalina, 2010. "Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 246-265, April.
  3. A. Hatemi-J, 2003. "A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 135-137.
  4. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects and Financial Integration," Research Department Publications 4581, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  6. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
  7. K. Sandar Kyaw & Ronald Macdonald, 2009. "Capital Flows and Growth in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 101-122.
  8. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
  9. Ranciere, Romain & Tornell, Aaron & Westermann, Frank, 2006. "Decomposing the effects of financial liberalization: Crises vs. growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3331-3348, December.
  10. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197, June.
  13. Masten, Arjana Brezigar & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Masten, Igor, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-313, March.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  15. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
  16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Working Paper Research 53, National Bank of Belgium.
  17. Olivier Jeanne & Arvind Subramanian & John Williamson, 2012. "Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5119, November.
  18. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 19-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2006. "The role of foreign currency debt in financial crises: 1880-1913 versus 1972-1997," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3299-3329, December.
  20. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 715-741.
  21. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
  22. Chin-Yoong Wong & Yoke-Kee Eng, 2015. "Surviving Asymmetry in Capital Flows and the Business Cycles: The Role of Prudential Capital Controls," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 545-563, 08.
  23. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
  24. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  25. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2014. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 299-332, 08.
  26. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
  27. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  28. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
  29. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:40:y:2016:i:1:p:64-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.