IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v149y2025ics0264999325001075.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Temporary migration, indeterminacy and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo

Abstract

This study develops a one-sector, small open economy growth model to examine the effects of temporary migration on macroeconomic stability and growth of host countries. The analysis focuses on general production technology, treating native and immigrant workers as distinct labor inputs. Findings suggest that diminished marginal returns to capital may be responsible for the emergence of equilibrium indeterminacy. However, when the social benefits of production differ from private benefits, the model exhibits a unique saddle-path equilibrium with no endogenous growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2025. "Temporary migration, indeterminacy and growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001075
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001075
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107112?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Laurent Bossavie & Çağlar Özden, 2023. "Impacts of Temporary Migration on Development in Origin Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 38(2), pages 249-294.
    4. Jean-Pierre Drugeon, 1998. "A model with endogenously determined cycles, discounting and growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(2), pages 349-369.
    5. Bossavie, Laurent & Görlach, Joseph-Simon & Özden, Çaglar & Wang, He, 2025. "Temporary migration for long-term investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Abad, Nicolas & Seegmuller, Thomas & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Nonseparable Preferences Do Not Rule Out Aggregate Instability Under Balanced-Budget Rules: A Note," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 259-277, January.
    7. Christoffel, Kai & Costain, James & de Walque, Gregory & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias & Millard, Stephen & Pierrard, Olivier, 2009. "Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications," Working Paper Series 1053, European Central Bank.
    8. Bian, Yong & Meng, Qinglai, 2004. "Preferences, endogenous discount rate, and indeterminacy in a small open economy model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 315-322, September.
    9. Meng, Qinglai, 2006. "Impatience and equilibrium indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2671-2692, December.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    12. Andri Chassamboulli & Theodore Palivos, 2014. "A Search‐Equilibrium Approach To The Effects Of Immigration On Labor Market Outcomes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(1), pages 111-129, February.
    13. Meng, Qinglai & Velasco, Andres, 2004. "Market imperfections and the instability of open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 503-519, December.
    14. Mondal, Debasis & Gupta, Manash Ranjan, 2008. "Innovation, imitation and intellectual property rights: Introducing migration in Helpman's model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 369-394, August.
    15. Parello, Carmelo P., 2019. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy In One-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role Of International Labor Migration," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1528-1562, June.
    16. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2020. "Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 675-692.
    17. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Isabel Cairó & Hess T. Chung & Francesco Ferrante & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Camilo Morales-Jimenez & Damjan Pfajfar, 2023. "Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Klein, Paul & Ventura, Gustavo, 2009. "Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1059-1073, November.
    20. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo Manuelli, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth," NBER Working Papers 3241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1996. "Fiscal policy, growth, and macroeconomic performance in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 41-66, February.
    22. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E, 1990. "A Convex Model of Equilibrium Growth: Theory and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1008-1038, October.
    23. Lundborg, Per & Segerstrom, Paul S., 2002. "The growth and welfare effects of international mass migration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 177-204, January.
    24. David M. Arseneau & Sanjay K. Chugh, 2012. "Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 926-985.
    25. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    26. Hertog, Steffen, 2014. "Arab Gulf states: an assessment of nationalisation policies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57578, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
    28. Benhabib, Jess & Perli, Roberto & Xie, Danyang, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, indeterminacy and growth," MPRA Paper 37411, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1994.
    29. Liu, Xiangbo, 2010. "On the macroeconomic and welfare effects of illegal immigration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2547-2567, December.
    30. Khraiche, Maroula, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Analysis Of Guest Worker Permits," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 189-220, January.
    31. Klein Paul & Ventura Gustavo J, 2007. "TFP Differences and the Aggregate Effects of Labor Mobility in the Long Run," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, May.
    32. Larramona, Gemma & Sanso, Marcos, 2006. "Migration dynamics, growth and convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2261-2279, November.
    33. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October.
    34. Ortega, Javier, 2000. "Pareto-Improving Immigration in an Economy with Equilibrium Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 92-112, January.
    35. Kemnitz, Alexander, 2001. "Endogenous growth and the gains from immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 215-218, August.
    36. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    37. Nishimura, Kazuo & Shimomura, Koji, 2002. "Indeterminacy in a dynamic small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 271-281, December.
    38. Per Lundborg & Paul S. Segerstrom, 2000. "International Migration and Growth in Developed Countries: A Theoretical Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(268), pages 579-604, November.
    39. Andri Chassamboulli & Theodore Palivos, 2014. "A Search‐Equilibrium Approach To The Effects Of Immigration On Labor Market Outcomes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 111-129, February.
    40. Joseph-Simon Görlach & Katarina Kuske, 2022. "Temporary migration entails benefits, but also costs, for sending and receiving countries," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 503-503, November.
    41. Palivos, Theodore & Wang, Ping & Zhang, Jianbo, 1997. "On the Existence of Balanced Growth Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 205-224, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2022. "Migration and growth in a Schumpeterian growth model with creative destruction [A model of growth through creative destruction]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1139-1166.
    2. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bright Isaac Ikhenaode & Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2018. "Endogenous Migration in a Two-Country Model with Labor Market Frictions," Working Papers in Public Economics 184, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    4. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2020. "Immigration and remittances in a two-country model of growth with labor market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 675-692.
    5. Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello, 2021. "Free labor mobility and indeterminacy in models of neoclassical growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 27-46, June.
    6. Xiangbo Liu & Theodore Palivos & Xiaomeng Zhang, 2017. "Immigration, Skill Heterogeneity, And Qualification Mismatch," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1231-1264, July.
    7. Chassamboulli, Andri & Palivos, Theodore, 2013. "The impact of immigration on the employment and wages of native workers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 19-34.
    8. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    9. Moreno-Galbis, Eva & Tritah, Ahmed, 2016. "The effects of immigration in frictional labor markets: Theory and empirical evidence from EU countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 76-98.
    10. Zainab Iftikhar & Anna Zaharieva, 2025. "Problem or Opportunity? Immigration, Job Search, Entrepreneurship and Labor Market Outcomes Of Natives in Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_714, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    11. Akihiko Yanase & Yukio Karasawa-Ohtashiro, 2019. "Endogenous time preference, consumption externalities, and trade: multiple steady states and indeterminacy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 126(2), pages 153-177, March.
    12. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Working Paper Research 05, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    14. Sargent, Kristina, 2023. "The labor market impacts of Brexit: Migration and the European union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo & Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac, 2021. "Migration, community networks and welfare in neoclassical growth models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Fiaschi, Davide & Tealdi, Cristina, 2020. "Winners and Losers of Immigration," IZA Discussion Papers 13600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac, 2024. "Immigration, skill acquisition, and fiscal redistribution in a search equilibrium model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-31, January.
    18. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2013. "Is Physical Investment The Key To China'S Growth Miracle?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1948-1971, October.
    19. Bouché, Stéphane, 2017. "Learning by doing, endogenous discounting and economic development," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-43.
    20. Yunfang Hu & Kazuo Mino, 2009. "Financial Integration and Aggregate Stability," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 09-01, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.