IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v112y2022ics0264999322000992.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heterogeneous technology and specialization for economic growth beyond the middle-income stage

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Junhee
  • Lee, Keun

Abstract

Many middle-income countries are caught in the middle-income trap, facing a slowdown in growth. Although they are undergoing a structural transformation from labor-intensive to capital-intensive sectors, existing literature does not provide theoretical guidance on which capital-intensive sectors to enter first. This study builds on Schumpeterian sectoral heterogeneity to develop a two sector, two country trade model. A static model shows the comparative advantage of an emerging economy in a sector with a short cycle time of technology (CTT), which is associated with high rates of depreciation of knowledge embodied in capital and thus, low entry barriers for an emerging economy. The dynamic model then shows that as an emerging economy accumulates more capital stock, it eventually loses its comparative advantage in short CTT sectors, and it becomes optimal to specialize in the long CTT sectors as many advanced economies do.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Junhee & Lee, Keun, 2022. "Heterogeneous technology and specialization for economic growth beyond the middle-income stage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:112:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105853
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999322000992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105853?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Ioannis Bournakis & Dimitris Christopoulos & Sushanta Mallick, 2018. "Knowledge Spillovers And Output Per Worker: An Industry‐Level Analysis For Oecd Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1028-1046, April.
    3. Yusuf , Shahid & Nabeshima, Kaoru, 2009. "Can Malaysia escape the middle-income Trap ? a strategy for Penang," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4971, The World Bank.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    5. Justin Yifu Lin, 2011. "New Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking Development," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 193-221, August.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    7. Claustre Bajona & Timothy Kehoe, 2010. "Trade, Growth, and Convergence in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 487-513, July.
    8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    9. repec:wbk:wbpubs:2536 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aistleitner, Matthias & Gräbner, Claudius & Hornykewycz, Anna, 2021. "Theory and empirics of capability accumulation: Implications for macroeconomic modeling," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    11. H. Uzawa, 1971. "On a Two-Sector Model of Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 3, pages 19-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    13. Petralia, Sergio & Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Morrison, Andrea, 2017. "Climbing the ladder of technological development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 956-969.
    14. Kyoo-Ho Park & Keun Lee, 2006. "Linking the technological regime to the technological catch-up: analyzing Korea and Taiwan using the US patent data," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 15(4), pages 715-753, August.
    15. Zhiqi Chen, 1992. "Long-Run Equilibria in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 923-943, November.
    16. Winter, Sidney G., 1984. "Schumpeterian competition in alternative technological regimes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(3-4), pages 287-320.
    17. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    18. Rosiello, Alessandro & Maleki, Ali, 2021. "A dynamic multi-sector analysis of technological catch-up: The impact of technology cycle times, knowledge base complexity and variety," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3).
    19. Pritchett, Lant, 2022. "National development delivers: And how! And how?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 1 : Emerging Stronger from the Crisis," World Bank Publications - Reports 2455, The World Bank Group.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    22. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    23. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    24. Sushanta K. MALLICK & Ricardo M. SOUSA, 2017. "The skill premium effect of technological change: New evidence from United States manufacturing," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 156(1), pages 113-131, March.
    25. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model," Staff Report 256, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    26. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    27. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    28. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    29. Elise Brezis & Paul Krugman & Daniel Tsiddon, 1991. "Leapfrogging: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," NBER Working Papers 3886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Tibor Scitovsky, 1954. "Two Concepts of External Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 143-143.
    31. Pei-Tha Gan, 2014. "The Optimal Economic Uncertainty Index: A Grid Search Application," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 159-182, February.
    32. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    33. Qiao, Lu & Fei, Junjun, 2022. "Government subsidies, enterprise operating efficiency, and “stiff but deathless” zombie firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    34. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
    35. Jacob Viner, 1958. "Stability and Progress: The Poorer Countries’ Problem," International Economic Association Series, in: Douglas Hague (ed.), Stability and Progress in the World Economy, pages 41-65, Palgrave Macmillan.
    36. Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "Catch-up cycles and changes in industrial leadership:Windows of opportunity and responses of firms and countries in the evolution of sectoral systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 338-351.
    37. Gordon H. Hanson, 2012. "The Rise of Middle Kingdoms: Emerging Economies in Global Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 41-64, Spring.
    38. Breschi, Stefano & Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2000. "Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 388-410, April.
    39. Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn & Nadir Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-339, September.
    40. Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi & Peretto, Pietro, 1997. "Persistence of innovative activities, sectoral patterns of innovation and international technological specialization," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 801-826, October.
    41. Lee,Keun, 2013. "Schumpeterian Analysis of Economic Catch-up," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107042681.
    42. Fabio Landini & Franco Malerba, 2017. "Public policy and catching up by developing countries in global industries: a simulation model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 927-960.
    43. John Sheahan, 1958. "International Specialization and the Concept of Balanced Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 72(2), pages 183-197.
    44. Stokey, Nancy L, 1988. "Learning by Doing and the Introduction of New Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 701-717, August.
    45. Amartya Kumar Sen, 1957. "Some Notes on the Choice of Capital-Intensity in Development Planning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 561-584.
    46. Jongho Lee & Keun Lee, 2021. "Catching-up national innovations systems (NIS) in China and post-catching-up NIS in Korea and Taiwan: verifying the detour hypothesis and policy implications," Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2-3), pages 387-411, September.
    47. World Bank, "undated". "World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 2 : Robust Recovery, Rising Risks," World Bank Publications - Reports 2536, The World Bank Group.
    48. Angus C. Chu & Yuichi Furukawa & Sushanta Mallick & Pietro Peretto & Xilin Wang, 2021. "Dynamic effects of patent policy on innovation and inequality in a Schumpeterian economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(4), pages 1429-1465, June.
    49. Franco Malerba & Keun Lee, 2021. "An evolutionary perspective on economic catch-up by latecomers [Catching-up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 986-1010.
    50. Landini, Fabio & Lee, Keun & Malerba, Franco, 2017. "A history-friendly model of the successive changes in industrial leadership and the catch-up by latecomers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 431-446.
    51. Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 85-110, February.
    52. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1991. "Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 517-526, April.
    53. Lee, Keun & Lee, Jongho & Lee, Juneyoung, 2021. "Variety of national innovation systems (NIS) and alternative pathways to growth beyond the middle-income stage: Balanced, imbalanced, catching-up, and trapped NIS," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    54. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-999, October.
    55. Justin Yifu Lin & Yong Wang, 2020. "Structural Change, Industrial Upgrading, and Middle-Income Trap," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 359-394, June.
    56. Bekkers, Eddy & Stehrer, Robert, 2015. "Reallocation effects in the specific factors and Heckscher–Ohlin models under firm heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 104-119.
    57. Cimoli, Mario & Pereima, João Basilio & Porcile, Gabriel, 2019. "A technology gap interpretation of growth paths in Asia and Latin America," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 125-136.
    58. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guoge Yang & Fengyi Wang & Feng Deng & Xianhong Xiang, 2023. "Impact of Digital Transformation on Enterprise Carbon Intensity: The Moderating Role of Digital Information Resources," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-26, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    2. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    3. Chang, Sungyong & Kim, Hyunseob & Song, Jaeyong & Lee, Keun, 2021. "Dynamics of Imitation versus Innovation in Technological Leadership Change: Latecomers’ Catch-up Strategies in Diverse Technological Regimes," SocArXiv b8fae, Center for Open Science.
    4. Li, Daitian & Capone, Gianluca & Malerba, Franco, 2019. "The long march to catch-up: A history-friendly model of China’s mobile communications industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 649-664.
    5. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste, Wissens-Spillovers und regionales Wachstum. Teilprojekt 1: Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung – Welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert das Wach," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58342, February.
    6. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Petralia, Sergio & Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Morrison, Andrea, 2017. "Climbing the ladder of technological development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 956-969.
    8. Wonkyu Shin & Keun Lee & Walter G. Park, 2016. "When an Importer's Protection of IPR Interacts with an Exporter's Level of Technology: Comparing the Impacts on the Exports of the North and South," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 772-802, June.
    9. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    10. Rosiello, Alessandro & Maleki, Ali, 2021. "A dynamic multi-sector analysis of technological catch-up: The impact of technology cycle times, knowledge base complexity and variety," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(3).
    11. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    12. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    13. Torrecillas, Celia & Martínez, Catalina, 2022. "Patterns of specialisation by country and sector in olive applications," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Mirajul Haq & Muhammad Luqman, 2014. "The contribution of international trade to economic growth through human capital accumulation: Evidence from nine Asian countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, June.
    16. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    17. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1997. "The sources of growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 75-114, January.
    18. Riccardo Crescenzi & George Petrakos, 2016. "The European Union and its neighboring countries: The economic geography of trade, Foreign Direct Investment and development," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(4), pages 581-591, June.
    19. Dosi, Giovanni & Lamperti, Francesco & Mazzucato, Mariana & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2023. "Mission-oriented policies and the “Entrepreneurial State” at work: An agent-based exploration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Yuzhe Miao & Jaeyong Song & Keun Lee & Chuyue Jin, 2018. "Technological catch-up by east Asian firms: Trends, issues, and future research agenda," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 639-669, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Specialization; Comparative advantage; Cycle time of technologies; Heterogeneous technologies; Middle-income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:112:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322000992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.